明清时期中国东部高温事件年表重建和分析<sup>*</sup>

陶乐, 苏筠, 康媛. (2021). 明清时期中国东部高温事件年表重建和分析^* [J]. 古地理学报, 23(2): 449-460.
Tao Le, Su Yun, Kang Yuan. (2021). Reconstruction and analysis of chronology of high temperature events in eastern China during Ming and Qing dynasties[J]. Journal Of Palaeogeography, 23(2): 449-460. 复制到剪切板

Doi: 10.7605/gdlxb.2021.02.027
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明清时期中国东部高温事件年表重建和分析^*

陶乐¹, 苏筠^1,², 康媛¹

1北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京 100875

2北京师范大学环境演变与自然灾害教育部重点实验室,北京 100875

通讯作者简介苏筠,女,1974年生,北京师范大学教授、博士生导师,主要从事自然灾害风险、气候变化研究。E-mail: suyun@bnu.edu.cn。

第一作者简介陶乐,女,1997年生,北京师范大学地理科学学部在读研究生,主要从事区域资源环境与灾害研究。E-mail: ayou_tsingyi@126.com。

收稿日期:2020-04-21

基金资助:*国家重点研发计划“全球变化与应对”(编号: 2018YFA0605602)和国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 41771572)联合资助

摘要

气候变化的背景下,极端暖事件的频率有增加的趋势。通过“语义差异法”识别了明清时期的高温事件,对其高温程度进行分级,建立了1350—1910年中国东部的高温事件年表,并对高温事件的发生时间、年代际特征进行了分析。结果表明: 明清时期有41个年份记录了高温事件,36个年份出现极端高温事件;高温事件发生频率和强度存在一定的阶段性变化,这种阶段性变化与北半球及中国气温的冷暖阶段变化有一定对应,与极端冷事件频率基本呈反相变化,1700—1749年和1800—1859年是明清时期极端高温事件发生频率最高且强度最大的2个时段,分别对应小冰期中期1710—1760年较温暖的时期和小冰期末期,16世纪末至17世纪是小冰期中最寒冷的一个阶段,极端高温事件相对不频繁,极端冷事件则发生频繁;高温事件还具有连年或隔年再发的特点。尝试利用现代器测资料和站点相关的计算方法对高温事件记录点所可能反映的地理范围进行了探讨,长江下游地区和华北平原的案例分析表明,历史时期记录有限,但区域的单点高温记录可能反映了范围比较广的极端高温事件。

关键词: 极端高温事件; 历史记录; 气候变化; 年表; 明清时期

中图分类号:P467 文献标志码:A 文章编号:1671-1505(2021)02-0449-12

Reconstruction and analysis of chronology of high temperature events in eastern China during Ming and Qing dynasties

Tao Le¹, Su Yun^1,², Kang Yuan¹

1 Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

2 Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster,Ministry of Education,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

About the corresponding author Su Yun,born in 1974,professor,doctoral supervisor,Beijing Normal University,mainly engaged in natural disaster risk and climate change research. E-mail: suyun@bnu.edu.cn.

About the first author Tao Le,born in 1997,is a postgraduate student in the Department of Geographic Science,Beijing Normal University. E-mail: 201921051030@mail.bnu.edu.cn.

Fund:Co-funded by the National Key R & D Program of China(No.2018YFA0605602)and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41771572)

Abstract

The frequency of extreme warming events tends to increase under the background of climate change. The high temperature events in Ming and Qing dynasties were identified and their severity was graded based on the semantic difference method. The chronology of high temperature events between 1350 and 1910 in eastern China was established and their occurrence time and interdecadal characteristics was analyzed. The results show that high temperature events occurred in 41 years of Ming and Qing dynasties,and extreme high temperature events occurred in 36 years. The frequency and intensity of high temperature events present a certain change in phase,which corresponds to the change of temperature in the cold and warm period in the northern Hemisphere,especially China,and is in reverse variation trend with the frequency of extreme cold events. During two periods, i.e.,1700 to 1749 and 1800 to 1859,there were the highest frequency and intensity of extreme high temperature events in the Ming and Qing dynasties,corresponding to the warmer period of the middle Little Ice Age and the late Little Ice Age from 1710 to 1760 respectively. From the late 16th century to the 17th century,it was the coldest period in the Little Ice Age. The extreme high temperature events were relatively infrequent and extreme cold events occurred frequently. High temperature events may also lasted for many years or occured a year later. We also discussed the geographical scope the temperature events by the recording points of high temperature events that are measured by modern instrumentation data and the correlation analysis of sites. The case studies in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the North China Plain show that the single-point high temperature records in the study region may reflect a wide range of extreme high temperature events though there are limited records of historical period.

Key words: extreme high temperature events; historical records; climate change; chronology; Ming and Qing dynasties

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1 概述

极端气候事件指特定时段内气候要素量值或统计量显著偏离平均状态, 且达到或超出其观测值或统计量值区间上下限附近特定阈值的事件(IPCC, 2012; 郑景云等, 2014a)。气候变化背景下, 极端气候事件的发生频率有增加的趋势(IPCC, 2012)。较之气候平均态, 极端气候事件发生的概率小、突发性强, 是重要的致灾因子和巨灾风险源, 容易造成较大的影响和损失, 是气候变化研究领域的重要问题(丁一汇和任国玉, 2008; 齐庆华等, 2019)。

随着全球变暖, 极端暖事件的发生频率明显增加(Easterling et al., 1997; Karl and Easterling, 1999; Alexander et al., 2006; Min et al., 2011; )。在中国, 随着气温上升, 高温、热浪事件的频次和强度增加(Zhai et al., 2003; 胡宜昌等, 2007; Ding et al., 2010)。2003年极端高温热浪席卷欧洲的同时, 中国江南、华南也出现了罕见的持续高温天气(王亚伟等, 2006; 邹旭恺和高辉, 2006); 2010年8月中旬上海持续多日的37 ℃以上的高温热浪天气造成了供电、供水压力, 并威胁居民的生命健康(陈敏等, 2013)。因此, 全球变暖背景下有必要开展极端高温事件时空特征的研究, 以增加对气候变化及可能影响的认识。

目前, 中国的极端气候事件时空研究主要基于器测资料的时空分析以及利用气候模式进行模拟和预测, 这也是认识极端温度事件的2种重要手段(李书严等, 2012; 郎咸梅和隋月, 2013; 陈晓晨等, 2015; 张延伟等, 2016; 李东欢等, 2017)。但器测资料存在时段较短、难以揭示长时间尺度规律的问题(葛全胜等, 2006), 模式模拟的方法在针对特定区域进行降尺度分析时的准确性有待验证和优化(王志远和刘健, 2014; 张学珍等, 2017), 这些问题可以通过历史文献重建的结果来适当地进行补充或对比校验。文献记载有时空覆盖度和分辨率较高、定年准确的特点, 对于定量重建过去的气候有独特的优势(郑景云等, 2014b), 已经形成的一些综合性集成成果如文献记录汇编和电子数据库为获取历史气候资料提供了便利。

对于历史极端冷暖事件, 受历史文献偏重记载寒冷事件而较少记载温暖事件的影响, 历史极端高温事件极难得到识别, 冷事件的研究远多于暖事件(郑景云等, 2014a)。已有的研究通过序列重建、年表总结和个案分析对历史时期冷冬的特点做了剖析, 总结了若干变化特征。郑景云等(2005)根据中国东部地区的异常霜雪及河湖结冰记录重建的冬半年温度距平序列, 识别出魏晋南北朝220— 580年间有56个异常寒冷年, 其中40个冬季的温度较1951年以来的极端冷冬温度低; 丁玲玲和郑景云(2017)根据华南地区冬季气候特征重建了1710— 2009年华南地区冷冬序列, 识别出华南地区过去300年的暖、冷、暖3个阶段; 郝志新等(2011)以南方地区及全国的冬季与1月气温观测记录为基础, 采用事件发生概率密度函数小于10%的标准确定了1951年以来的极端冷冬事件, 进而用冷冬灾害影响的古今对比建立了过去400年南方极端冷冬判别标准, 识别出1550— 1599年、1650— 1699年、1800— 1849年及1850— 1899年是过去400年中国发生极端冷冬事件最为频繁的4个50年。在案例研究方面, 前人分别对1670— 1671年、1892— 1893年及1620— 1621年的极端寒冬事件进行了剖析, 分析了当年的寒潮过程、极端日低温值等(张德二和梁有叶, 2014, 2017; 闫军辉等, 2014)。极端炎夏方面仅张德二和Demaree(2004)重建了1743年7月25日北京最高气温达44.4 ℃的极端高温事件。相对于极端冷冬有多时空分辨率的序列或年表总结以及丰富的个案, 极端热事件则受限于资料记载未有过多研究, 其长期的时空规律缺乏总结, 与气候变化的关系也相对不明确。

明清时期距现代相对较近, 史料相对丰富, 且刚好处于相对寒冷的一个时期, 其间的极端高温事件对于现今的气候变化问题有一定的参考和对比意义。作者尝试利用史料记录归纳明清时期高温事件年表, 探讨历史时期极端高温事件的发生频率和强度, 为模式模拟提供检验依据, 也为应对未来的极端高温事件提供历史相似型参考。

2 资料与方法

2.1 研究区域与资料来源

中国东部地区纵跨南亚热带、中亚热带、北亚热带、暖温带以及中温带的部分区域, 是中国季风气候的典型区, 也是夏季副热带高压直接影响的区域, 由此带来的降水、温度分配不均是中国夏季高温热浪灾害的直接成因。东部地区也是古代社会经济发展较为繁荣、历史资料丰富的地区, 夏季重大异常高温对于农业活动的影响在地方志等资料中有所记录。考虑史料的详略程度及现代器测数据的应用, 本研究探讨中国东部地区(即105° E以东、42° N以南)的夏季的高温事件(图 1)。

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	图 1 中国东部地区明清时期出现高温记录的地点底图来源: 1︰400万全国基础地理数据库Fig.1 Location of high temperature records during Ming and Qing dynasties in eastern China

本研究所使用的历史时期高温记录来源于《中国近三千年气象记录总集》(张德二, 2004)和《中国气象灾害大典》(温克刚, 2005)。以“ (酷/甚/盛/大/毒/极)暑、炎、热、燠、熏灼” 等表述“ 热” 的语句作为高温事件提取的关键词, 对高温事件进行摘录, 单纯记录“ 旱” 的, 即使“ 夏旱” 也不计入。对高温事件记录中事件发生的时间、地点和具体描述进行记录, 并按来源参阅明清时期各个府县的府志、县志、地方志及少数历史资料, 对事件事实、起止时间进行核验和补充; 地名根据《古今地名对照表》转换为现代地点; 日期参照《中华两千年历书》将阴历转换为阳历。共摘录了142条高温事件的记录, 涉及40个年份, 高温记录出现地点见图 1。根据现代气象学对于极端高温事件的基本定义, 主要从高温程度上对高温记录进行分级和极端性的判定, 并对高温事件持续时间、影响等方面进行分析。

所需的现代器测资料来源于国家气象科学数据中心的中国地面气候资料日值数据集(V3.0)。该数据集包括中国699个基准、基本气象站1951年以来的气温日值数据, 由于1960年及之前的站点数量相对少且不稳定, 取1961— 2010年的7月份日最高气温数据用以分析。

2.2 极端高温事件判定与年表建立

已有研究中极端高温事件的定义主要从统计中的概率(如IPCC采用事件发生概率密度函数小于10%来确定)或从温度阈值及持续时间(如中国气象部门定义日最高气温大于或等于35 ℃为高温日, 且一般以超过3天定义热浪, 一些具体研究中则根据纬度标准有所差异)进行界定。但历史文献中对高温及其影响的记录描述较简单、条数少、出现记录的点独立单一, 较难根据灾害影响程度和影响范围对事件进行等级划分, 亦难以用古今对比的方法, 从现代器测气象资料的统计结果出发, 从概率上进行“ 极端性” 的判断。这主要是因为在以农为本的古代中国, 人口密集、农业发达的中东部地区为亚热带季风气候和温带季风气候, 极端低温事件、极端旱涝经常对农业生产造成直接而巨大的影响, 因热量过分充足而导致的农业生产损失则较少出现。而高温事件一般表现为对人体带来严重的生理不适, 如中暑、热死人等现象, 因为较少带来直接的农业经济损失, 不危及粮食安全基础, 所以历史文献中对高温及其影响的记录相对不重视, 情形特别严重或感受特别异常才会进行记录。本研究所摘录的高温原始记录多来自于地方志的“ 灾祥” 或“ 祥异” 部分, 按年份记录发生天文现象和特殊农业气象事件, 属纪实纪录。因此, 考虑到历史记录“ 记异不记常” 的特点, 决定了明确出现高温记录的事件具有很高的可信度和异常性。在此基础上, 利用“ 语义差异法” 结合现代体感温度方面的研究以及高温导致中暑甚至死亡的灾害性影响, 对古代高温程度和事件极端性进行简单分级。

2.2.1 高温程度的表述与极端高温事件判定

历史文献中有关高温的记录集中表现为人体的感知描述, 包括“ (酷/甚/盛/大/毒/极)暑、炎、热、燠、熏灼” 等, 尽管明清时期的高温事件对于农业生产、基础设施等影响的具体表现形式与现代社会大不相同, 但几百年内中国居民在自然条件下对于温度的基本感知相对一致。表 1给出了体感温度与人体感知的相关研究结果, 受相对湿度、风速及日温差的影响, 体感温度并不与实际气温相一致, 但从体感温度的一般表达形式上看, 实际气温仍占绝对主导地位, 其他的因素作为实际温度的修正一般变化幅度较小。故基本可以判断体感温度达到37 ℃后会开始出现比较异常的不舒适, 当出现“ 极度难以忍受” 之类的表述时, 表明体感温度基本已达到40 ℃以上, 代表了比较极端的情形。

表 1 体感温度及人体感受的分级 Table1 Classification of somatosensory temperature and human perception

其次, 文献资料大部分记录了 “ 人多暍死” 的描述, 即高温导致了中暑, 而受限于医疗条件, 出现人大量死亡的情况。据前人对中暑的相关阈值研究, 中暑人数明显增多一般对应温度最极端的情形, 现代灾害研究中亦将“ 中暑人数明显增多” 作为高温热浪的标准(董蕙青等, 2000; 张德山等, 2005), 说明中暑人数增多, 尤其是出现大量死亡时, 表明高温已经非常极端。

据上, 将历史记录中的高温表述分为3个等级(表 2)。其中, 当出现二级(S)、三级(VS)的描述时, 认为达到了极端高温的情形。

表 2 中国历史文献中高温记述分级 Table2 Classification of high temperature records in historical documents of China

2.2.2 高温发生时间的推断

历史资料中仅较少的高温记录有具体日期的标识, 大部分为“ 夏” 或“ × 月” 的表述, 无法判断具体发生日期。直接记录的具体日期主要有以下几类: (1)农历日期, 如“ 邢台县大旱热, 七月初二暍死者数百人” (公元1671年)、“ 五月二十六日至六月初五日大热, 人暍死者甚众” (公元1743年), 直接将农历换算为公历; (2)日干支记录, 如“ 夏六月乙亥, 炎热异常, 自京师至内外热伤人畜甚众” (公元1678年)、“ 五月壬午, 酷暑, 焦大木皮若介, 果实如之” (公元1877年), 根据日干支查出对应的公历日期; (3)按月阴晴记录的日期, 如“ 六月朔后, 荣河亢阳, 大地如炉, 村人暍死者无数” (公元1839年), 此类记录近似等于农历日期。以上有具体日期的记录有些提供了起止时间, 有些仅提供起始或终止时间, 或仅提供事件最为严重的日期, 结合语境以及同一事件的多条记录判定高温事件的起止时间。

另有2类未记录具体的日期, 但也能较准确判断出时段: (1)有节气用语, 视当年具体情况来推算, 如“ 六月伏中大热太甚, 中暑之人无数, 热死者一日有十余名” , 则推算出当年三伏天日期, 取其农历6月的部分; (2)有月内具体时期的表述, 如“ 六月初旬, 酷暑, 墙壁如炙, 人畜多暍死” (公元1827年)、“ 东光县七月初旬酷热, 人多暍死” (公元1870年), 认为其时间尺度与1次高温事件基本相当, 取该旬对应的公历日期。

需要说明的是, 尽管现代对于高温事件或热浪事件的定义考虑持续时间, 但历史记录多无法确定持续时长, 本研究不将持续时长作为高温事件的定义标准。且对高温的感受的描述多表达了一段时期影响积累的含义。

2.2.3 高温影响

并非所有的高温纪录均只记载人体感应相关和中暑现象, 部分记录中亦出现了高温对农业及其他方面影响的记载。其中最主要的表现为农业受旱, 如“ 大旱” 、“ 禾多枯死” 、“ 岁歉” 、“ 二麦尽枯” 等表述; 其次, 少数年份有生物响应的记载, 如“ 河鱼多死” 、“ 耕牛死” 等; 除了生物的响应, 还有少数记录中出现了高温对于设施的影响, 如“ 桅顶金流” 、“ 锡铅销化” “ 墙壁器物如炙等” ; 除此之外, 个别年份出现了因高温受灾, 朝廷进行蠲免和赈济。按照当年的记录详情, 将当次高温事件的影响按“ 人体” 、“ 农业” 、“ 生物” 、“ 设施” 、“ 社会” 几个方面进行分类记录。

3 1350— 1910年的高温事件年表及特征分析

根据以上标准, 确定中国东部1350— 1910年的高温事件年表, 共找到142条高温记录, 识别出41个年份发生了高温事件, 其中36个年份被判定为发生的是极端高温事件。事件的发生时间、地点、极端程度以及带来的影响等详细信息整理成年表(表 3)。

表 3 明清时期中国东部高温事件年表 Table3 Chronology of high temperature events during Ming and Qing dynasties in eastern China

时段/年	年份	地点	极端程度	一年中时间	高温影响	记录数
1350— 1399	1381	湖南永州	M	7月	农业	1
1400— 1449	1413^*	湖北武汉	S	夏季	人体	1
1450— 1499	1485^*	浙江安吉	S	夏季	农业	1
1500— 1549	1525^*	山东诸城	S	6月	人体	1
1550— 1599	1565^*	山西洪洞	S	夏季	人体	1
	1568^*	江苏兴化, 浙江嘉兴	VS	7月	人体	3
	1575^*	上海市	VS	7月	人体、生物	1
1600— 1649	1600^*	北京	S	7月至8月上旬	农业	1
	1627^*	辽宁葫芦岛	VS	7月中下旬	人体	1
	1636^*	河北邯郸、衡水, 江苏苏州, 浙江湖州	VS	7月	人体、农业、生物	6
1650— 1699	1661^*	山西运城	S	7月	农业、人体	2
	1671^*	山西运城, 河北保定、邢台、邯郸及秦皇岛	VS	8月3日— 8月7日	人体、农业	9
	1678^*	北京, 河北秦皇岛、唐山, 辽宁葫芦岛	VS	7月24日前后	人体、生物	5
1700— 1749	1711^*	河北保定、唐山、秦皇岛	VS	7月下旬— 8月上旬	农业	4
	1732^*	山东泰安	S	夏季	生物	1
	1740^*	河北邢台	VS	夏季	人体	1
	1743^*	北京、天津、河北大部以及山西、山东部分地区	VS	7月15日— 7月26日	人体、农业、生物、设施、社会	52
1750— 1799	1752	北京市	M	7月21日— 8月5日	人体	1
	1753^*	上海市	S	7月	人体、生物	1
	1759^*	上海市	S	夏季	人体	1
	1773^*	河北保定	S	7月下旬	人体	1
1800— 1849	1807	北京市	M	7月	人体	1
	1825^*	河北秦皇岛	S	夏季	人体	1
	1827^*	河北唐山、秦皇岛, 辽宁葫芦岛, 山东安丘、潍坊	VS	7月24日— 8月2日	人体、设施、农业	9
	1831^*	北京市	S	7月19日— 8月5日	人体	1
	1834^*	山东胶州	S	6月26日前后	人体、生物	1
	1839^*	山西运城、临汾	VS	7月11日— 7月16日	人体、农业	5
	1841^*	山西运城	VS	夏季	人体	1
1850— 1899	1862^*	上海市	S	夏季	人体	1
	1965	广东梅州	VS	夏季	人体	1
	1866	福建宁德, 湖南岳阳	M	7月	农业	2
	1870^*	河北邢台、石家庄、保定一带	VS	7月24日— 8月6日	人体、农业	6
	1875^*	北京, 天津, 河北保定, 山东青岛	VS	7月27日— 7月31日	人体	4
	1877^*	河北廊坊, 河南濮阳, 湖北襄阳	S	7月8日前后	人体、农业	3
	1887^*	湖北咸宁	S	6月25日前后	人体	1
	1888^*	江苏高邮	S	夏季	人体	1
	1889^*	江苏宁波	S	7月	人体	1
	1893^*	山东莱芜, 江苏泰州	VS	夏季	人体	2
	1894^*	江苏南京	S	夏季	人体、农业	1
1900— 1910	1900	河北邢台, 山东济南、滨州	M	7月	农业	3
1900— 1910	1907^*	山西临汾、运城	S	夏末	人体	2
合计	41(36)					142

注: ^*为极端高温事件; 年份合计中36为极端高温事件年份数; M、S、VS分别对应于表 2中的一、二、三级; “ 一年中时间” 中黑体部分由具体的日期推算得来, 其他年份高温发生的准确时间不明确。资料来源: 《中国近三千年气象记录总集》(张德二, 2004)、《中国气象灾害大典》(温克刚, 2005)。

表 3 明清时期中国东部高温事件年表 Table3 Chronology of high temperature events during Ming and Qing dynasties in eastern China

3.1 高温事件发生的年内时间

在41个高温事件年份中, 有12个年份记录了具体的发生时间(表 3), 其他的记录无法推算具体时间, 但大多数有月记录的按记录推测发生在7月份。可以推算具体日期的年份中, (极端)高温事件最常发生的时期为7月中下旬(图 2), 这符合中国东部大部分区域季风气候下温度的年内变化特点, 与现代高温热浪发生时间的研究结果相对一致(贾佳和胡泽勇, 2017)。比较严重的极端高温事件(VS)多发生在这一时期, 但也出现了如1834年和1887年发生于六月底的短时强高温。

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	图 2 明清时期中国东部地区有明确记载的高温事件的发生时间Fig.2 Time of high temperature events which are well-defined during Ming and Qing dynasties in eastern China

3.2 极端高温事件发生的年代际特点

整个研究时段内, 高温事件总体呈现越来越频繁的基本趋势(表 3)。1350— 1549年的200年内, 每50年仅有1年有高温事件记录, 极端高温事件仅发生3次, 且级别均为“ S” , 这其中有年代较早记录较少的原因, 也一定程度上表明, 明清小冰期的早期, 极端高温事件的发生频率处在一个较低的水平, 到16世纪后半叶开始, 高温事件频次增多, 强度也增强。高温事件比较频繁的后半段, 18世纪中期和19世纪前期, 是极端高温事件发生最为频繁且极端高温事件强度最强的2个时期, 其间的18世纪后期至19世纪前期, 极端高温事件的频率较小。19世纪后期, 极端高温事件的频次增多明显, 到了20世纪, 第1个10年即有2次高温记录。

将本研究中识别出的高温事件发生年份与重建的中国过去千年温度序列以及极端冷冬序列进行对比(图 3)表明, 百年尺度上的冷暖变化与极端高温发生的频率有一定的对应关系, 如16世纪末至17世纪是明清小冰期中最为冷的一段时期(葛全胜等, 2002), 这段时期高温事件发生的频率也相对较低, 极端冷事件的频率则相对较高(郝志新等, 2011); 而1710— 1760年是小冰期中相对暖的时段(葛全胜等, 2002), 这一时期高温事件发生较密集, 强度也较大, 极端冷事件则较少发生(郝志新等, 2011)。19世纪后期在一些研究中被认为是较冷的时期, 而这段时期极端高温事件的频率明显增高, 信号早于20世纪才开始逐渐变暖的多数温度序列, 这其中可能有“ 厚今薄古” 导致资料记录在近200年增多的原因, 也可能反映了工业革命背景下极端气候事件的确有增多趋势, 且极端气候事件对人类活动加速下的气候变化反应更为敏感。这一时期, 极端冷事件的发生频率也较高(郝志新等, 2011)。

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图 3 中国公元1350— 1950年温度序列、极端冷冬序列与高温事件发生年份的对比
a— Wang等(2007)重建的中国过去气温距平序列; b— 葛全胜等(2002)重建的中国冬半年温度距平序列, 折线为30年滑动平均; c— 郝志新等(2010)识别的中国南方过去400年极端冷冬发生年份; d— 本研究识别的中国东部高温事件发生年份Fig.3 Comparison of temperature series, extreme cold winter series and high temperature events in China from AD 1350-1950

此外, 从年表(表3)中还可以看出, 历史上的极端高温事件还具有连年再发或隔年再发的特征, 这一规律在极端冷冬事件上也有体现(郝志新等, 2011)。如公元1752年和1753年高温事件连年再发, 公元1887年、1888年和1889年连续3年在长江中下游地区发生极端高温事件, 造成多人中暑, 公元1893年、1894年高温事件亦连年再发; 公元1875年和1877年的极端高温事件则隔年再发。

3.3 极端高温事件的影响及案例

在有记录高温事件发生的年份中, 公元1743年无论是高温发生的范围、炎热程度、危害都堪称罕见。其影响地域跨北京、天津、河北、山东、陕西等5个省市(图 4), 人体、农业、生物、设施、社会多个方面受到了明确的影响。人体健康方面, 仅记载人大量中暑而死的就有42个县市之多。乾隆《浮山县志》卷三十四“ 祥异” 中记载“ 京师更甚, 浮人在京贸易者亦有热毙者” , 表明在北京一带, 高温已直接严重威胁人们的基本生活。27个县市记录了因极热造成旱灾, 出现了“ 二麦尽枯” 、“ 是岁旱谷收三分” 、“ 禾苗尽槁” 、“ 秋禾未种” 等描述。生物方面, 除了“ (人)畜暍死外” , 还出现了“ 鸡子报不成” 、“ 风炙, 树木向西南辄多死” 等其他年份少有的具体描述。设施方面, 出现了“ 桅顶金流” 、“ 日中铅锡销化” 等记录, 表明地表温度已经极端高。同时, 公元1743年也是记录中唯一一个大量记载了高温影响至社会经济及政治层面的年份, 由于严重威胁人体的基本健康, 朝廷在部分地区“ 命地方官设冰厂, 施药以济” ; 高温带来的旱灾引起了粮价陡升, 多地出现“ 斗米千钱” 的记录, 为了缓解粮食短缺, 朝廷大量进行蠲免地租和赈济, 如河北省河间县记录“ 蠲银八千一百十一两, 米一百” , 衡水市、深县等地也记录“ 题准赈免” 、“ 详情蠲赈” 等。

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	图 4 公元1743年高温事件范围底图来源: 1︰400万全国基础地理数据库Fig.4 Range of high temperature events in AD 1743

张德二(2004)根据当时的宫廷天气记录、以及旅居北京的外国教士记载的北京早期器测气象资料, 确定了公元1743年7月25日北京的最高气温达44.4 ℃, 说明在工业革命前的自然背景下, 同样存在极为严重的高温事件。

其他的一些炎热年份少有如此严重的极端高温事件, 影响方面一般也仅限于人体以及农业、生物中的1~2个方面。但如公元1671年、1827年、1870年和1875年也出现了范围较广, 危害较大的极端高温事件, 多地出现了“ 苦热伤人” 、“ 人多触暑僵死” 、“ 大热如焚” 等描述中暑情形的。值得注意的是, 这些影响相对严重的年份, 高温发生的区域均位于华北地区, 这其中一方面有靠近政权中心资料记载相对详细的原因, 另一方面则是由于中国夏季华北区晴天频率高、高温同时伴有干旱的特征, 而南方地区夏季高温常常被降水或阴雨天气缓解, 故带来的影响常常不如华北地区。

4 讨论: 从记录“ 点” 推演出现高温的“ 面” 范围

由年表(表 3)可以看出, 一些县市是高温事件频繁记载地, 如华北的保定、邢台、唐山、秦皇岛、甚至辽宁葫芦岛等地多次记录了极端高温, 山西洪洞、运城、临汾也常记载极端高温, 江浙沪一带记录最多的首推上海, 兴化、嘉兴、高邮、南京也单独有记录。一方面可以认为这些地点是相对容易发生高温事件的区域, 另一方面也是因为这些地区明清时期相对发达, 有相对充足的整理人员和完善的地方志记录制度。由于历史文献记载终归非统一定量记载, 不同地区的地方志资料详细程度受制于当地的发展程度及相关制度的完善程度, 存在很大的区域差异, 且历史上本就相对忽视高温, 很多极端高温事件尽管从程度上看十分严重, 造成了大量人中暑而亡, 但记录仅限于个别县市, 数量少。因此作者尝试对单点记录在极端高温事件上是否有空间代表性以及其组合有多大范围的空间代表性进行探讨。

本研究选择了2个均出现了多人中暑而死的极端高温事件年份— — 公元1568年和1875年, 作为记录的空间代表性分析案例。前者发生于长江下游地区3个相对离散的地点(江苏兴化、东台和浙江嘉兴), 后者发生于华北4个相对离散的点(北京、天津、河北唐山、山东青岛), 这些地点也是历史记录中常出现高温事件记录的区域。利用1961— 2010年夏季7月日最高气温数据, 计算出现记录地点的7月份日最高气温与周围站点的空间相关性, 并用空间插值的方法得到相关性的空间分布, 从而推测高温记录可能代表的范围, 选择7月份的日最高气温的原因是, 高温事件指标一般以日最高温来记, 且7月份一般为中国东部地区的夏季最热月份, 对历史时期极端高温事件发生时间的统计也显示多在7月份。具体做法是: 形成东部地区(> 105° E, 10° ~42° N)所有站点(共417个)1961— 2010年50年的7月份日最高气温序列(序列长度为31× 50), 分别找到距每个高温记录点最近的气象站点i₁, i₂, ……, i_n, 计算其他所有站点的7月份日最高气温与站点i₁, i₂, ……, i_n, 之间的序列相关性, 对相关系数进行空间插值, 并确定阈值, 形成以站点为中心的高相关性区域E_i, E_j, 该次极端高温事件的可能空间范围可视为E=E₁∪ E₂∪ …E_n。

所得到的公元1568年和1875年的站点空间相关性分布如下(图 5)(相关系数均通过0.05显著性检验), 相关系数在0.7以下的站点及区域被认为相关性较弱而未予显示, 对于相关系数大于0.9的区域, 认为极有可能亦处于极端高温的情形。

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	图 5 利用站点相关性推算公元1568年和1875年的高温发生范围底图来源: 1︰400万全国基础地理数据库Fig.5 Ranges of high temperature in AD 1568 and 1875 estimated using site correlation

在公元1568年, 当长江下游的兴化市、东台市和杭州市出现极端高温天气时, 江苏南部至浙江北端这一区域是极有可能出现高温的区域(相关系数均大于0.9), 包括南京、镇江、苏州等主要城市, 可能也是本次事件的高温中心。以此为中心向内陆延伸的安徽大部至湖北东部是较有可能发生高温的区域(相关系数大于0.8), 且武汉尽管距离较远, 但7月份的日最高气温与长江下游表现出很高的相关性和一致性(相关系数大于0.9), 故也很有可能出现同步高温。与出现记录的站点相关系数大于0.9的区域面积达到了4× 10⁴ km²以上(单点约为3× 10⁴ km²), 大于0.8的区域面积则达到了近18× 10⁴ km², 尽管不能确定这些区域均发生了极端高温, 但有很大可能这些区域在同期也较热。公元1568年的高温事件比较符合中国东部夏季副高压控制下的长江中下游的高温情形, 其他年份中如公元1485年、1759年、1889年和1894年均有可能表现出类似的高温格局。

而在公元1875年的华北地区, 当北京、天津、唐县以及山东青岛出现极端高温天气时, 河北大部分平原地区(如唐山、保定、廊坊、沧州和衡水一带)以及山东东部(如潍坊、烟台)有较高的可能性亦发生了高温(相关系数大于0.8), 但相关系数大于0.9的区域相对离散, 说明在华北地区, 单站的高代表性区域较长江下游地区略小, 约(0.1~0.5)× 10⁴ km², 相关系数大于0.8的区域面积达到了10× 10⁴ km²。但华北地区的高温记录相对长江中下游地区更丰富, 出现记录的县市也较多, 因此当不同的县市同时出现记录时, 可以认为高温事件发生的范围其实是较大的, 公元1711年、1743年、1827年的华北高温与公元1875年可能具有很相似的格局。

由上可知, 虽然历史时期只有个别地方出现极端高温记录, 但高温出现的空间范围应该不局限于个别县域, 华北平原区、长江下游地区的单点高温记录具有一定的空间代表范围。且出现类似格局的高温事件也较为典型。

5 结论与讨论

本研究考虑现代气象学对于极端高温事件的基本定义, 结合体感温度和中暑方面的研究, 通过“ 语义差异法” 对高温记录进行分级和极端性的判定, 确定了明清时期(1350— 1910年)的高温事件, 重建了1350— 1910年中国东部的极端高温事件年表, 并对高温事件发生的时空特征进行分析。结果表明:

1)明清时期极端高温事件在史料中记录较少, 共41个年份发生了高温事件, 其中36个年份为极端高温事件, 一定程度上反映了明清时期寒冷的背景, 但即使是在工业革命前的自然背景下, 极端高温的程度亦有可能很强, 可能出现如1743年类似的北京最高温达到44.4 ℃异常极端高温, 以其为代表的华北地区的高温常常伴随旱灾而带来较大影响。

2)极端高温事件在研究时段内呈现从“ 不频繁” 到“ 频繁” 的基本趋势。其发生频率和强度存在一定的阶段性变化, 这种阶段性变化与北半球及中国气温的冷暖阶段变化有一定的对应, 与极端冷事件频率基本呈反相变化, 其中1700— 1749年和1800— 1859年是明清时期极端高温事件发生频率最高且强度最大的2个时段, 分别对应小冰期中期1710— 1760年较温暖的时期和小冰期末期, 前者的极端冷事件发生亦明显较少; 16世纪末至17世纪极端高温事件相对不频繁, 符合小冰期中最寒冷的一个阶段, 这一时期极端冷事件发生频率高。

3)工业革命以后极端高温事件频率增加早于多数温度距平序列, 这一时期极端冷冬频率也增加, 表明极端气候事件对人类活动影响下的气候变化反应可能较气候平均态更为敏感。极端高温事件还具有连年或隔年再发的特点。

4)在自然地理背景(比如地貌)相对一致的区域内, 出现高温的空间范围不应是一个孤立点位。利用现代气象资料和站点相关的计算方法, 可以根据历史时期的个别县域记录推演极大可能出现高温的区域范围。长江下游地区和华北平原是高温事件发生的典型区域, 这些区域的单点高温记录有一定的空间代表范围, 可能反映了范围比较广的极端高温事件。

值得注意的是, 由于历史文献记载和语义差异法终归并非定量手段, 且相较于极端冷冬, 极端高温发生的区域尺度更小, 缺少大范围的标志性的灾害判断, 而体感温度虽能较好地反映温度的相对差异, 但对绝对温度的反映还缺少更为直接的证据, 仅能通过中暑的严重程度来进行辅助判断, 故本研究对于高温事件的高温程度和极端程度的判定可能仍存在不完善之处。

另一方面, 中国历史上相对忽视高温记载, 且记录大有“ 厚今薄古” 的趋势, 年代际的规律又仅能从频次上判断, 加之中国东部地区的夏季大气环流背景较冬季复杂, 南北温差较小, 极端高温事件的出现对夏季温度及年均温的影响相较寒潮和冷冬事件小, 因此事件显示出的与长期气候变化的相关性不如冷冬强。

其次, 许多高温事件的影响尽管十分严重, 但记录数少, 记载地少, 空间范围不明, 这与高温事件的发生背景复杂、尺度随机且不同地区的记录完善程度有很大差别有关系, 如何判断记录的空间代表范围是相对困难的, 本研究采取现代器测资料的站点相关性分析了较常出现记录的2个区域作为案例, 探讨了可能的空间范围, 但确切的空间范围重建可能需要更多的资料和理论支持。

致谢感谢北京师范大学地理科学学部殷水清老师及其研究生王茂青在站点相关性分析上的数据处理指导。

（责任编辑李新坡; 英文审校刘贺娟）

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2013

0.0

... 2010年8月中旬上海持续多日的37 ℃以上的高温热浪天气造成了供电、供水压力,并威胁居民的生命健康(陈敏等,2013) ...

2015

0.0

陈晓晨, 徐影, 姚遥. 2015. 不同升温阈值下中国地区极端气候事件变化预估. 大气科学, 39(6): 1123-1135.

[Chen X

, Xu

, Yao

. 2015. Changes in climate extremes over China in a 2 ℃, 3 ℃, and 4 ℃ warmer world. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 39(6): 1123-1135]

Due to human-induced global warming, global Average Surface Air Temperature(ASAT) will reach certain thresholds with reference to the pre-industrial period. Quantitative assessments of climate extremes across China when reaching these thresholds are important indicators in disaster risk management and policymaking. In this study, based on outputs of 18 General Circulation Models(GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5), 27 climate-extreme indices computed with a consistent methodology are used to quantify the changes in the mean and extreme climate across China when the 2℃, 3℃, and 4℃ thresholds under different Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP) scenarios are exceeded. In general, the ASAT warms faster over China than the global mean in the 21st century. Extreme warm events(e.g., warm nights, warm days, and tropical nights) increase greatly, while extreme cold events(e.g., cold nights, cold days, and frost days) decrease. When the 4℃ threshold is exceeded, warm nights index(spatially averaged over China) are projected to show an increase of about 49.9% relative to the reference period. Accompanied by the increase in global mean temperature, the northern part of China will see more precipitation when the 2℃ threshold is exceeded. Extreme precipitation shows obvious intensification in both frequency and magnitude when different temperature thresholds are exceeded. China is dominated by lengthening heavy and very heavy precipitation days and increasing maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation and extremely wet days. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation amount increases by 12.5mmand 17.0mmwhen the global ASAT becomes 3℃ and 4℃ warmer, respectively. The changes are found to be more pronounced under higher temperature thresholds. Southwest China, however, exhibits larger changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation than other regions.

本文基于耦合模式比较计划第五阶段(CMIP5)的18个全球气候模式的模拟结果,预估了全球平均气温在不同典型浓度路径(RCPs)下达到2℃、3℃和4℃阈值时,中国地区气温和降水的变化,并采用了具有稳定统计意义的27个极端气候指标定量评估了全球平均气温达到不同阈值时,中国地区极端气候事件的可能变化。结果表明,未来我国平均气温增幅将高于全球平均增暖,极端暖事件(如暖夜、暖昼、热带夜)明显增多,达到4℃阈值时,暖夜指数相比参考时段增加约49.9%。极端冷事件(如冷夜、冷昼、霜冻)减少。随全球气温升高,中国北方平均降水增多。在不同升温阈值下,中国地区降水的极端性都体现出增强的趋势,强降水事件发生频率(如中雨日数、大雨日数)和强度(如五日最大降水量、极端强降水量)都明显增加。随升温阈值的升高,这些变化幅度更大,在 RCP8.5 情景下全球升温 3℃和4℃时,中国平均五日最大降水分别增加 12.5mm和17.0mm。我国西南地区极端降水强度的增幅高于其他地区。

... 陈晓晨等,2015 ...

2014

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2017

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丁玲玲, 郑景云. 2017. 过去300年华南地区冷冬指数序列的重建与特征. 地理研究, 36(6): 1183-1190.

[Ding L

, Zheng J

. 2017. Reconstruction and characteristics of series of winter cold index in South China in the past 300 years. Geographical Research, 36(6): 1183-1190]

Climate change research in South China extending back before the current century not only has considerable importance to researching the features of climate change and predicting future climate change and climate disasters in South China, but also plays a positive role in analysis of the characteristics of climate change throughout China. In this paper, there are two data sources: historical documents and modern meteorological observations. Historical documents include Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records and collections from local gazettes and other historical data. A total of 1499 records from stations operational from 1736 to 1911 were collected from Yu-Xue-Fen-Cun records with about 9 stations recorded yearly, and 1237 records from 1710 to 2000 were collected from other historical documents with about 4 records yearly. Based on the features of records in historical documents and characteristics of winter climate in South China, methods for reconstructing the winter cold index were established to reconstruct the series of winter cold index for analysis of the characteristics of cold and warm in winters in South China from 1710 to 2009 by clustering analysis, the Mann-Kendall method and power spectrum analysis. The results showed the following: (1) The average winter cold index in South China was 2.2 from 1710 to 2009, with a maximum index range of neighboring years of 3.0 (the difference between 1834 and 1835) and maximum index difference of adjacent decades of 0.7 (the difference between the 1890s and 1900s), which indicated an obvious change in winter cold. (2) Winter temperatures were warmer in the 20th century than in the 19th century. (3) The cold and warm changes in winters in South China from 1710 to 2009 could be divided into three stages: warmer winter existed during the two periods from 1710 to 1834 and from 1893 to 2009, while it colder winters were observed in from 1835 to 1892. (4) The cold winter index in South China had no apparent change from 1710 to 2009, with an obvious warming trend indicated by the Mann-Kendall method. (5) The results of spectral analysis showed the cold winter index in South China had dominant cycle of 100, 50, 40, and 8 years. (6) There was a significant correlation between winter cold index and instrumental series in the same periods, which showed that the constructed series could reflect the features of winter change in the past 300 years at some scale and had some reference meaning regarding research into the characteristics of winter of South China and China overall.

1. Institute of Hanjiang, Hubei University of Arts and Science, Xiangyang 441053, Hubei, China 2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China

根据华南地区历史文献记录的特点,参照华南地区冬季气候和天气特征,提出利用史料记录重建华南地区冷冬指数的方法,重建1710-2009年华南地区冷冬指数序列,据此分析过去300年华南地区的冬季冷暖变化特征。结果表明：1710-2009年间,华南地区平均冷冬指数为2.2,相邻年最大相差为3.0,相邻年代最大相差为0.7,波动较为明显;过去300年可分为3个时段：1710-1834年相对暖期、1835-1892年相对冷期和1893-2009年的相对暖期;华南地区冬季冷暖变化呈显著变暖趋势;华南地区冷冬指数序列存在显著的100年、50年、40年和8年周期;重建序列与同时期器测序列具有较高的相关性,可从一定程度上反映华南过去300年冬季变化的规律性,对华南地区和中国冬季冷暖变化特征研究可能具有些许参考意义。

... 丁玲玲和郑景云(2017)根据华南地区冬季气候特征重建了1710#cod#x02014 ...

2008

0.0

... 较之气候平均态,极端气候事件发生的概率小、突发性强,是重要的致灾因子和巨灾风险源,容易造成较大的影响和损失,是气候变化研究领域的重要问题(丁一汇和任国玉,2008 ...

2000

0.0

... 作为高温热浪的标准(董蕙青等,2000 ...

2002

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葛全胜, 郑景云, 方修琦, 满志敏, 张雪芹, 张丕远, 王维强. 2002. 过去2000年中国东部冬半年温度变化. 第四纪研究, 22(2): 166-173.

[Ge Q

, Zheng J

, Fang X

, Man Z

, Zhang X

, Zhang P

, Wang W

. 2002. Temperature changes of winter-half-year in eastern China during the past 2000 Years. Quaternary Sciences, 22(2): 166-173]

As one of the core objectives of PAGES, the research on climatic changes of past 2?000 years is highlighted. It is also an important research field for Chinese participation in global change studies. In this paper, the quantitative sequence of the winter half year temperature in eastern China over the past 2000 years in 10～30 years resolution is reconstructed by phenomena records and the other proxy data with cold/warm description extracted from Chinese historical documents, and some cold/warm times series in China published in last couple of decades, and the instrumental data from 1951～2000. The variability and amplitudes of cold warm changes in eastern China during the past 2?000 years are discussed as well.

1. Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101; 2. Department of Resources and Environment Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875; 3. Institute of Chinese History and Geography, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433; 4. Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY 12203, USA

根据近年收集、整理的历史文献冷暖记载及过去有关研究结果,对中国东部地区过去2000年冬半年的温度状况进行了定量推断,重建了中国东部地区过去2000年分辨率为10～30年的冬半年温度距平变化序列,并分析了中国东部过去2000年的冷暖变化阶段与变化幅度。结果发现:在过去2000年中,中国东部冬半年温度高于1951～1980年平均值且持续时间超过百年的暖期有4个,其中最暖的30年出现在1230’s～1250’s(较1951～1980年高0.9℃);低于1951～1980年平均值且持续时间超过百年的冷期有3个,其中最冷的30年出现在1650’s～1670’s(较1951～1980年低1.1℃)。在冷暖期之间相互转换的过程中,冬半年温度一般都出现1℃左右的升、降温;在冷暖期内,一些幅度较大的升、降温也与之相仿;在相邻的两个30年中,温度变化幅度达0.5℃以上的有19次之多。

... 将本研究中识别出的高温事件发生年份与重建的中国过去千年温度序列以及极端冷冬序列进行对比(图 3)表明,百年尺度上的冷暖变化与极端高温发生的频率有一定的对应关系,如16世纪末至17世纪是明清小冰期中最为冷的一段时期(葛全胜等,2002),这段时期高温事件发生的频率也相对较低,极端冷事件的频率则相对较高(郝志新等,2011) ...

... 1760年是小冰期中相对暖的时段(葛全胜等,2002),这一时期高温事件发生较密集,强度也较大,极端冷事件则较少发生(郝志新等,2011) ...

2006

0.0

... 但器测资料存在时段较短、难以揭示长时间尺度规律的问题(葛全胜等,2006),模式模拟的方法在针对特定区域进行降尺度分析时的准确性有待验证和优化(王志远和刘健,2014 ...

2011

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郝志新, 郑景云, 葛全胜, 丁玲玲. 2011. 中国南方过去400年的极端冷冬变化. 地理学报, 66(11): 1479-1485.

[Hao Z

, Zheng J

, Ge Q

, Ding L

. 2011. Variations of extreme cold winter events in southern China in the Past 400 Years. Acta Geographic Sinica, 66(11): 1479-1485]

The extreme cold winter events were defined as the ones with the occurrence probabilities lower than the tenth percentile of the probability density function, based on the observed temperature of winter and January in southern China since 1951. The impacts (including freezing of rivers/lakes, widespread snow/ice storms, and cold damages to subtropical/tropical crops) of these extreme cold winter events occurred since 1951, which were adopted to reconstruct the chronology of extreme cold winter events derived from Chinese documents in southern China during 1600-1950. The most frequent occurrences of extreme cold winter events were observed during 1650-1699, 1800-1849 and 1850-1899, with frequencies twice as many as that in 1950-1999. The frequencies of extreme cold winter events in 1600-1649 and 1900-1949 were a little higher than those in 1950-1999. In contrast, the frequencies of extreme cold winters during 1700-1749 and 1750-1799 were close to those in 1951-1999. Moreover, the occurrence of extreme cold winter events happened year by year or every other year in most of cases. Meanwhile, the intensities of some historical cold events exceeded those of the coldest winter events since 1951.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

以南方地区及全国的冬季与1 月气温观测记录为基础,采用事件发生概率密度函数小于10%的标准确定1951 年以来的极端冷冬事件；根据历史文献中的寒冷事件及其灾害影响记载,采用古今极端冷冬事件影响程度对比的方法建立了1600-2010 年间的极端冷冬事件年表。分析表明：极端冷冬发生频率存在明显的阶段性变化,其中1650-1699 年、1800-1849 年及1850-1899 年是过去400 年极端冷冬发生最为频繁的时段,其发生次数达1950-1999 年的2 倍,1600-1649 年及1900-1949 年较20 世纪后半叶略多, 而1700-1749 年及1750-1799 年则与1950-1999 年相当。此外,极端冷冬事件具有连发或隔年再发特征。同时,20 世纪50 年代以来最严重冷冬事件的寒冷程度并没有超出历史时期曾经出现过的事件。

... 郝志新等(2011)以南方地区及全国的冬季与1月气温观测记录为基础,采用事件发生概率密度函数小于10%的标准确定了1951年以来的极端冷冬事件,进而用冷冬灾害影响的古今对比建立了过去400年南方极端冷冬判别标准,识别出1550#cod#x02014 ...

... 1760年是小冰期中相对暖的时段(葛全胜等,2002),这一时期高温事件发生较密集,强度也较大,极端冷事件则较少发生(郝志新等,2011) ...

... 这一时期,极端冷事件的发生频率也较高(郝志新等,2011) ...

... 此外,从年表(表3)中还可以看出,历史上的极端高温事件还具有连年再发或隔年再发的特征,这一规律在极端冷冬事件上也有体现(郝志新等,2011) ...

2007

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胡宜昌, 董文杰, 何勇. 2007. 21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展. 地球科学进展, 22(10): 1066-1075.

[Hu Y

, Dong W

, He

. 2007. Progress of the study of extreme weather and climate events at the beginning of the twenty first century. Advances in Earth Science, 22(10): 1066-1075]

More and more researches pay attention to extreme events because of their destructive impacts. Both observing and modeling studies found that extreme temperature and precipitation had significant changes. Further more, there may be more severe extreme events in the future with global warming. Of course, there are still many uncertainties contained in these results. Two main factors contribute to these uncertaintiesne. One is associated with models. There are usually great difference of outputs between different models; the other is the possible difference resulted from the period of different length analyzed. From the definition of extreme events, progresses about the study of extreme events in the last few years are described in detail first for both observing and modeling studies. Then the main progresses are listed, and some problems hanging in doubt are summarized.

1.Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia, Institute of AtmosphericPhysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029，China; 2.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081,China; 3.Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039,China

由于极端天气气候事件的严重影响，越来越多的研究开始关注其变化情况。从观测分析到模拟研究，几乎都发现极端气温、降水事件发生了显著变化，而且在全球变暖的大背景下，未来有些极端事件可能会发生频数更高或强度更强。当然，研究结论也存在一定程度的不确定性，从模式模拟来看，目前模拟结果仍存在不确定性，不同模式的结果间常常存在较大的差异；而从观测分析来看，研究主要局限于20世纪后半叶，如果对更长时间作分析，结论或许会有所不同。文章从最基本的极端天气气候事件的定义出发，结合观测事实和模拟研究两个主要方面来介绍近几年来极端事件研究取得的主要进展，最后简单地总结了这些进展，并提出了进一步研究的思路。

... 胡宜昌等,2007 ...

2017

0.0

... 可以推算具体日期的年份中,(极端)高温事件最常发生的时期为7月中下旬(图 2),这符合中国东部大部分区域季风气候下温度的年内变化特点,与现代高温热浪发生时间的研究结果相对一致(贾佳和胡泽勇,2017) ...

2013

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郎咸梅, 隋月. 2013. 全球变暖2 ℃情景下中国平均气候和极端气候事件变化预估. 科学通报, 58(8): 734-742.

[Lang X

, Sui

. 2013. Changes in mean and extreme climates over China with a 2 ℃ global warming. China Science Bulletin, 58(8): 734-742]

使用一个区域气候模式(RegCM3)在IPCC SRES A1B温室气体排放情景下对东亚地区进行的高分辨率数值模拟试验数据, 就备受关注的相对于工业化革命前期全球变暖2℃阈值情景下中国平均气候和极端气候事件变化进行了预估研究. 结果表明, 届时中国年平均温度普遍上升而且幅度要高于同期全球平均值约0.6℃, 增温总体上由南向北加强并在青藏高原地区有所放大, 各季节变暖幅度相似但空间分布有一定差别; 年平均降水相对于1986～2005年平均增加5.2%, 季节降水增加4.2%～8.5%, 除冬季降水在北方增加而在南方减少之外, 年和其他季节平均降水主要表现为在中国西部和东南部增加而在两区域之间减少. 极端暖性温度事件普遍增加, 而极端冷性温度事件减少; 中国区域年平均的连续5天最大降水量、降水强度、极端降水贡献率和大雨日数分别增加5.1 mm, 0.28 mm d -1 , 6.6%和0.4 d, 而持续干期减少0.5 d, 其中大雨日数和持续干期变化存在较大的空间变率.

... 郎咸梅和隋月,2013 ...

2017

0.0

... 李东欢等,2017) ...

2012

0.0

... 目前,中国的极端气候事件时空研究主要基于器测资料的时空分析以及利用气候模式进行模拟和预测,这也是认识极端温度事件的2种重要手段(李书严等,2012 ...

2000

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2019

0.0

齐庆华, 蔡榕硕, 郭海峡. 2019. 中国东部气温极端特性及其气候特征. 地理科学, 39(8): 1340-1350.

[Qi Q

, Cai R

, Guo H

. 2019. The climatic variations of temperature extremes in the eastern of China. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 39(8): 1340-1350]

:Based on percentile and other statistical methods, the climate index was built to analyze the extreme peculiarities of temperature, its space-time evolution and the regional differences in the eastern China (ECM excluding Hongkong Macao and Taiwan), and the associations with the global and regional climatic and oceanic variabilities were discussed. The results show that, in the past 60 years, the long-term warming trend in the ECM is obvious. Due to the influence of latitude and seasons, the response to global warming is most obvious in the northern regions with high latitude and in winter and spring seasons. Compared with the daily minimum temperature, the daily maximum temperature did not distinctly increase especially in the central region between the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. As a result, the diurnal temperature range also showed a decreasing trend overall. In consistent with the average temperature extremes and climatic regioons, the intensity of extreme cold events (ECE) decreased significantly, especially in the north of the Yellow River and southeast coastal areas. However, the long-term trend of the intensity of extreme high temperature events (EHTE) is not obvious, especially in Huanghuai area where the decrease trend dominated. Long-term trends of annual frost and ice days and the cold wave duration experienced a reduce, while the heat wave duration gives priority to increase. The spatial pattern of the intensity and frequency of the extreme events were well consistency, and the response to global changes is remarkable. The impaction index of the ECE possessed greater values in northern region and inland, while lower in the southern regions and coastal areas. The corresponding long-term trend is decline with regional uniformity, especially in the eastern coastal areas. Meanwhile, the impaction index of the ECE in spring is higher than that in winter, and its decline trend is not obvious. The long-term increase trend of impact index of the EHTE was smaller and regional differences are significant. Moreover, the climatic trend in the areas with large values of impaction index was mainly enhanced, while that in the areas with smaller values most significantly weakened. Overall, the frequency of regional extreme temperature events is more sensitive to global climate change than the intensity. The analysis further shows that, the subtropical high, Antarctic and Arctic oscillations may be important factors influencing the formation and evolution of extreme temperature events in the EC.

Third Institute of Oceanography Ministry of Natural Resources, Xiamen 361005, Fujian, China

基于百分位等统计方法构建极端气候指数,分析中国东部气温极端特性变化的时空格局和趋势特征,探讨其与全球变暖和区域气候变率的关联性。结果表明,近60 a来,中国东部长期增暖趋势明显,高纬度北方地区和冬、春季节气温对全球变暖响应最为显著;相比于日最低气温,日最高气温上升趋势不明显,黄河与长江之间部分地区日最高温度出现下降趋势。全域日较差总体亦呈减小趋势;与日气温极值的平均状况和气候趋势相一致,极端低温事件强度下降趋势明显,黄河以北及东南沿海地区减弱显著。极端高温事件强度增加趋势并不明显,黄淮地区出现减小趋势;年霜冻日数和冰冻日数以及寒潮持续期的长期变化趋势以减少为主。高温热浪的持续期则以增加为主;中国东部极端气温事件频次与强度的演变格局存在同向一致性。极端低温影响指数的分布呈现北部大于南部、内陆大于沿海地区的特征,全域以一致性下降趋势为主,特别是东部沿海降低最为明显。另外,春季极端低温的影响指数大于冬季,且未有明显减小趋势。极端高温的影响指数增强趋势不明显,地区差异较大,指数的大值区影响增强的趋势显著。相比于强度,极端气温事件频次对全球气候变化的响应更为敏感。同时,副热带高压、南极涛动和北极涛动等区域性气候变率可能是调控中国东部极端气温事件形成和演化的重要因素。

... 齐庆华等,2019) ...

2006

0.0

... 2003年极端高温热浪席卷欧洲的同时,中国江南、华南也出现了罕见的持续高温天气(王亚伟等,2006 ...

2014

0.0

王志远, 刘健. 2014. 过去2000年全球典型暖期特征与机制的模拟研究. 第四纪研究, 34(6): 1136-1145.

[Wang Z

, Liu

. 2014. Modeling study on the characteristics and mechanisms of global typical warm periods over the past 2000 years. Quaternary Sciences, 34(6): 1136-1145]

In this study, we employed the Co mmunity Earth System Model(CESM)from the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR)with the low resolution (T31_ g37, which is equivalent to 3.75°×3.75°), one free forcing simulation experiment(control run), four single forcing experiments, including solar forcing run, volcanic forcing run, well-mixed greenhouse gas(GHGs)forcing run, and land use/Land cover(LUCC)forcing run, and one all four-forcing run were conducted for the past 2000 year. Because of lacking the reconstructed volcanic data, there is no volcanic forcing during 1~500A.D. in the all four-forcing run and volcanic forcing run. Based on the comparison of simulated results with proxy records and observed data, the CESM's performance of simulating global climate change was verified. Then the characteristics and mechanisms of the variability of the global surface air temperature and precipitation in the typical warm periods, i.e. , Medieval Warm Period(MWP, 1101~1200A.D.)and Present Warm Period(PWP, 1901~2000A.D.)during the past 2000 years was analyzed. All the conclusions are based on the modeling outputs. The results show:(1)The solar forcing is the main cause of MWP warming and the GHGs forcing is the dominant factor of PWP warming. The total solar irradiation is also contributed to the PWP warming.(2)The increment of precipitation that is induced by the natural forcings(solar activity plus volcanic eruption)is one order of magnitude higher than that induced by GHGs forcing in MWP, while in PWP, it is just the opposite, that is the GHGs forcing in PWP is one order of magnitude higher than that induced by natural forcings.(3)The responses of spatial patterns of the sea surface temperature to the natural(solar activity plus volcanic eruption)and anthropogenic(GHGs)forcings are different, especially over the tropic Pacific regions. It is the La Nina-like pattern in MWP and the El Niño-like pattern in PWP.(4)Relative to the average over the 1000~1850A.D. period, the Walker Circulation is intensified both in MWP and PWP. Overall, our experiments are using the most amplitudes reconstructed solar forcing, whether the other reconstructed solar irradiations or the other Earth/Climate System models could draw the same conclusions, it is definitely worth exploring.

① State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008; ② University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049; ③ Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, School of Geography Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023; ④ Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023; ⑤ Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Numerical Simulation of Large Scale Complex Systems, School of Mathematical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210023

本文利用美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)的通用地球系统模式(Co mmunity Earth System Model, 简称CESM)的低分辨率版本(CESM1.0.3, T31_g37)在国际国内率先进行了多组过去2000年瞬变积分模拟试验, 在与历史重建资料和观测资料进行对比验证的基础上, 对过去2000年中的典型暖期(中世纪暖期与现代暖期)的特征和成因机制进行了初步探讨, 结果表明: 中世纪暖期太阳辐射加强是导致其"暖化"的主要原因之一, 而温室气体浓度的激增是现代全球变暖的最主要原因; 在中世纪暖期, 自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和比温室气体的影响高一个数量级; 而在现代暖期, 温室气体对降水量的影响比自然因子(包括太阳辐射和火山活动)对降水量的影响之和高一个数量级; 在不同外强迫条件下的海表温度变化在热带太平洋区域截然不同, 即自然因子影响下为类-拉尼娜态, 而温室气体影响下为类-厄尔尼诺态; 无论在中世纪暖期还是现代暖期, 相对于1000~1850年的平均情况, 沃克(Walker)环流均处于增强状态。

2005

0.0

... 本研究所使用的历史时期高温记录来源于《中国近三千年气象记录总集》(张德二,2004)和《中国气象灾害大典》(温克刚,2005) ...

2014

0.0

闫军辉, 刘浩龙, 郑景云, 郝志新, 葛全胜. 2014. 长江中下游地区1620年的极端冷冬研究. 地理科学进展, 33(6): 835-840.

[Yan J

, Liu H

, Zheng J

, Hao Z

, Ge Q

. 2014. The extreme cold of winter of 1620 in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Progress in Geography, 33(6): 835-840]

Climate extremes have become a hot topic in the field of climate change research. In this study, the snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR) in the winter of 1620 were extracted from Chinese historical documents and archives. Using these records, the winter temperature anomalies (with respect to the 1961-1990 mean) of 9 stations were estimated based on the relationship between winter temperature and snow-cover days during the period with available instrumental observations. The regional winter temperature anomaly over the MLRYR was also estimated through stepwise regression. The results show that: (1) The regional mean snow-cover days for the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River were about 50 days, with high spatial variability. Snow-cover days ranged from 30 in Shanghai to 100 in Jingzhou, and the average snow-cover days were approximately 70 days in Hefei, Huoshan, Nanjing, Chaohu, among others in the region. Snow-cover days in Anqing, Wuhan, Changde, Changsha and Jingdezhen were 40 to 60, while the least snow-cover days of about 30 were found in Shanghai and southern Jiangsu Province. (2) It was extremely cold in the winter of 1620, and the regional mean winter temperature was estimated to be lower by approximately 4.4℃ than that in the period of 1961-1990. The maximum (coldest) winter temperature anomaly occurred in Jingdezhen, with winter temperature anomaly of about 5.7℃ lower than the reference period. The next were Huoshan, Hefei, Changde,Wuhan and Shanghai, with the winter temperature anomalies ranging between -5 and -4℃. Nanjing, Anqing and Changsha experienced smaller negative anomalies, ranging from -4 to -3℃. The minimum (warmest) winter temperature anomaly was detected in Changsha, but it was still much lower than the coldest record during the observational period.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; 3. College of Geography and Tourism, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 400047, China

根据历史文献记载，分析了长江中下游地区1620 年冬季的积雪特征与寒冷程度；估算了1620 年长江中下游地区及9 个地点相对于1961-1990 年的冬季气温距平。结果表明：①1620 年长江中下游地区冬季积雪期在30~100 日之间，其中荆州积雪期最长，可能达百日之久；合肥、霍山、南京、巢湖等地积雪平均达70 日左右；安庆、武汉、常德、长沙、景德镇等地积雪40~60 日不等；苏南、上海等地积雪日数相对较少，也达30 日左右。②1620 年长江中下游地区极端寒冷，冬季的区域平均气温较现代（1961-1990 年）低约4.4℃；其中景德镇的冬季气温负距平最大，较现代平均低约5.7℃；其次为霍山、合肥、常德、武汉和上海，其冬季气温距平在-5~-4℃之间；长沙冬季气温负距平虽相对最小（低约3.6℃），但仍远低于器测时期的极端最低值。

... 闫军辉等,2014) ...

2004

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2004

0.0

张德二, Demaree

. 2004. 1743年华北夏季极端高温: 相对温暖气候背景下的历史炎夏事件研究. 科学通报, 49(21): 2204-2210.

[Zhang D

, Demaree

. 2004. Extreme heat in the north China summer of 1743: a study of historical summer events in a relatively warm climate. Chinese Science Bulletin, 49(21): 2204-2210]

根据中国历史气候记载和新近在欧洲发现的北京早期器测气象资料, 研究1743年夏季华北高温极端气候事件, 指出这是中国最近0.7 ka来最严重的炎夏事件, 高温区域广及北京、天津、河北、山西、山东. 1743年7月北京的日最高气温高达44.4℃, 超过了20世纪的极端气候记录. 指出1743年的天气气候特征如旱涝分布、梅雨特点以及相应的太阳活动、海温场等外部因子条件, 发现这些特征均与现代1942和1999年华北炎夏事件相同. 该事件出现在气候相对温暖的背景下, 是工业革命之前(CO 2 较低排放水平时)出现的极端高温实例.

... 极端炎夏方面仅张德二和Demaree(2004)重建了1743年7月25日北京最高气温达44 ...

... 本研究所使用的历史时期高温记录来源于《中国近三千年气象记录总集》(张德二,2004)和《中国气象灾害大典》(温克刚,2005) ...

... 张德二(2004)根据当时的宫廷天气记录、以及旅居北京的外国教士记载的北京早期器测气象资料,确定了公元1743年7月25日北京的最高气温达44 ...

2014

0.0

张德二, 梁有叶. 2014. 历史极端寒冬事件研究: 1892/93年冬季严寒事件. 第四纪研究, 34(6): 1176-1185.

[Zhang D

, Liang Y

. 2014. A study of the severest winter of 1892/1893 over China as an extreme climatic event in history. Quaternary Science, 34(6): 1176-1185]

The winter of 1892/93 was abnormal severe cold over Eastern China. In this paper the coldness situation of the winter is reproduced by means of historical literature records using our historical climate data system. The synoptic process of two major cold waves were inferred, and a map of coldness records distribution likes heavy snow, frost, and crop freeze injuries were plotted. It is shown that the south boundary of river freeze-up reached south to 28°N, and freezing rain occurred time and again in regions to the south of the tropic of Cancer, the most south location of freezing rain took place in 21°29'N, as well as the depth of snow cover and days with snow lying in South China were never seen in the modern. Based upon the coldness records of places and the critical temperatures necessary for river freeze-up and tree winterkill, the extreme minimum temperatures were deduced quantitatively, and thus, a map of extreme minimum temperature of January 1893 was plotted. It is indicate that the deduced minimum temperatures in Suzhou, Wenzhou and Taishan in January 1893 were -15℃,-13℃ and 0℃, respectively, and the instrumental monthly extreme minimum temperatures in Shanghai, Zhenjiang, Hong Kong, Shantou and Baihai were-12.1℃,-12.8℃, 0℃, -0.6℃ and 0℃, respectively, all of the values are below the absolute minimum temperature recorded since the 20 th century, such as 1955A.D. and 2008A.D. Therefore, the winter of 1892/93 is considered as the coldest winter for recent more than 100 years. The extreme cold event occurred when China was still experiencing a cold climate despite the end of the Little Ice Age in the majority of the Northern Hemisphere. Prior to this winter over China, the autumn of 1892 underwent frequent cold air activities, and many places suffered from low temperature damage, and the first snow was much earlier compared to modern. In 1893, it was more rainy in most part of China, and the typhoon activity was more frequent. 1892~1893 was in the ascending phase of the 13 th sunspot activity period, 1893 was the year of maximum sunspot number in the period. The volcano activity was more active in the world ahead of the severe winter, there were 3 moderate-large volcanic eruptions and 24 moderate eruptions took place in 1892, in some case, their tephra volume was huge even reached 10 8 m 3 . As for the sea temperature, there was very strong El Niño events in 1891, and 1893 was the 2nd non-El Niño year after ending the El Niño events, this severe winter corresponding to a cooling phase of sea temperature in equatorial east Pacific ocean

National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081

1892/93年冬季中国东部地区严寒。本文依据历史文献记载复原了该寒冬实况, 推演主要的两次强寒潮天气过程, 绘制了雪、冰、冻雨和动植物冻害的地域分布图; 定量推断各地最低温度值, 并与早期器测温度记录相印证, 绘制最低温度等值线图。指出1893年1月苏州、温州的推断最低气温分别为-15℃和-13℃, 上海、汕头和香港的早期器测记录的最低气温分别为-12.1℃,-0.6℃和0℃, 均低于20世纪以来的极端低温记录; 河流封冻南界达 28°N, 北回归线以南地方多次出现严重冻雨, 冻雨南界达21°29'N。由此认为 1892/93 年冬季是中国最近百余年的首位寒冬——这是在北半球许多地区的小冰期寒冷气候已结束、开始转暖, 而中国仍然寒冷时的极端寒冷事例。此寒冬前后的气候特点是:1892年秋季冷空气活动频繁、初雪日期提前, 1893年中国东部多雨、台风活动较频繁。该寒冬的背景是: 位于第13太阳活动周的上升段; 发生于极强的厄尔尼诺事件结束2年后的非厄尔尼诺年, 对应于赤道中东太平洋海温变冷时段; 寒冬之前全球火山活动较频繁, 有重大火山喷发。

... 1621年的极端寒冬事件进行了剖析,分析了当年的寒潮过程、极端日低温值等(张德二和梁有叶,2014,2017 ...

2017

0.0

... 1621年的极端寒冬事件进行了剖析,分析了当年的寒潮过程、极端日低温值等(张德二和梁有叶,2014,2017 ...

2005

0.0

... 张德山等,2005),说明中暑人数增多,尤其是出现大量死亡时,表明高温已经非常极端 ...

2017

0.0

张学珍, 李侠祥, 徐新创, 张丽娟. 2017. 基于模式优选的21世纪中国气候变化情景集合预估. 地理学报, 72(9): 1555-1568.

[Zhang X

, Li X

, Xu X

, Zhang L

. 2017. Ensemble projection of climate change scenarios of China in the 21st century based on the preferred climate models. Acta Geographica Sinica, 72(9): 1555-1568]

Projection of future climate change scenarios provides the scientific basis for addressing climate change and for proposing strategies of adapting climate change. This study used the simulation data of 30 climate models, which were evolved in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Through evaluating the performance of each model on simulating the historical climate change, the preferred climate models were selected. Then, using the outputs of preferred climate models as independent variables and using ground measurements as dependent variables, the partial least squares regression (PLS) models were constructed for temperature and precipitation, respectively, of each region of China. By analyzing the ensemble predictions of regional temperature and precipitation changes, we found that the PLS ensemble mean of preferred climate models is closer to the ground measurements than the PLS ensemble mean of all of the climate models and the traditionally arithmetic average-based ensemble mean. The PLS ensemble projections of preferred climate model showed that climate warming would generally continue during the 21st century, which would be stronger in the cold half-year and in the northern regions than that in the warm half-year and in the southern regions. Under the scenario of RCP 4.5, the climate warming would be stronger in the first half of the 21st century and weaker in the second half. Under the scenario of RCP 8.5, the climate warming would keep nearly constant rate and, by the end of 21st century, the temperature would rise by two folds of that under the scenario of RCP 4.5. The increasing trend of precipitation would be stronger under the scenario of RCP 8.5 than that under the scenario of RCP 4.5 and would be stronger in the dry regions than that in the rainy regions with decadal oscillations. Finally, the equal weighting ensemble projections of all of the climate models exhibit that climate warming would be stronger in summer than in winter and that precipitation would increase linearly without decadal oscillations. These findings are opposite to the primary characters of climate changes that climate warming is stronger in winter than in summer and precipitation has strong inter-decadal variability. Thereby, the PSL-based ensemble mean of preferred climate model may provide reasonable projections of future temperature and precipitation changes.

1. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China 2. Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Geographic Environment, College of Heilongjiang Province, Harbin Normal University, Harbin 150025, China 3. The School of Resources Environment Science and Technology, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China

未来气候变化情景预估是制定气候变化应对和适应策略的科学基础。本文利用参与耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）的30个气候模式的模拟数据,通过评估各模式对历史气候变化的模拟能力,筛选出模拟区域气候变化的最优模式组合,进而建立偏最小二乘回归（PLS）集合预估模型,据此利用最优模式模拟结果预估区域温度和降水变化情景。通过与历史数据的对比,研究发现本文基于最优模式建立的PLS集合预估模型不仅优于传统的多模式集合平均,而且也优于利用全部模式建立的PLS集合预估模型,体现了模式优选过程的重要性。本文基于优选模式的PLS集合预估模型预估结果表明：① 21世纪各区域温度将持续上升,且冬半年升温速率总体大于夏半年,北方地区升温速率总体高于南方地区;RCP 4.5排放情景下温度上升先快后慢,转折点出现在21世纪中期,RCP 8.5排放情景下,呈持续增加趋势,至21世纪末的升温幅度约为RCP 4.5情景的2倍。② 21世纪各区降水变化均呈显著增加趋势,并表现出高排放情景大于低排放情景,少雨区大于多雨区的特征,但是降水增加过程伴有明显的年代际波动。对比发现,传统的等权重集合平均全部模式（EMC）方法预估的中国夏季变暖速率高于冬季,且降水基本呈线性增加,有悖于全球变暖的基本特征及中国降水具有鲜明的年代际变化特征的基本认识。因而,本文预估的温度和降水变化特征均更符合中国气候变化的基本规律。

... 张学珍等,2017),这些问题可以通过历史文献重建的结果来适当地进行补充或对比校验 ...

2016

0.0

张延伟, 葛全胜, 姜逢青, 郑景云. 2016. 北疆地区1961—2010年极端气温事件变化特征. 地理科学, 36(2): 296-302.

[Zhang Y

, Ge Q

, Jiang F

, Zheng J

. 2016. Evolution characteristics of the extreme high and low temperature event in north Xinjiang in 1961-2010. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 36(2): 296-302]

The high and low temperature events were analyzed based on the daily temperature observation data from 34 meteorological stations in North Xinjiang during 1961-2010 by using the methods of linear regression analysis and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The results show that: 1) The spatial distribution of the extreme highest temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the southeast part, and high value in the northwest part. And threshold value of the extreme highest temperature are a consistent upward trend, amount increases obviously in winter. The number of the extreme highest temperature processes increase linearly, while in Mid-Tianshan Mountains, there is an opposite trend. 2) The spatial distribution of the extreme low temperature in North Xinjiang presents low value in the east part, and high value in the west part. And threshold value of the extreme low temperature are a consistent downward trend in east and a consistent upward in west．The number of the extreme low temperature processes increase linearly, while in summer, there is a decrease trend. 3) As North of Xinjiang is an arid, semiarid-region, it means that the increase of extreme climate events should not be helpful for hydrologists, agriculturalists, emergency managers, industrialists.

1. Jinan University Soft Power Research Centre, Jinan 250002, Shandong, China; 2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 3. College of Enviromnent and Planning, Shangqiu and Normal University, Shangqiu 476000, Henan, China; 4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography Resources Research, CAS, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China

根据1961~2010 年北疆地区34 个气象台站逐日平均气温、最高气温和最低气温资料,定义高温和低温的阈值、频率及其强度,并采用线性趋势、EOF等方法对其研究分析.研究表明:① 北疆地区的高温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势.时间变化趋势分析发现该地区高温阈值呈现上升趋势.其中,夏季上升幅度最小,冬季上升幅度最大.频数分析发现天山山区极端高温频数变化要高于其他地区变化频数.② 北疆地区的低温阈值研究发现空间分布变化特征基本也呈现从东南向西北规律变化趋势.频数分析发现夏季频数总体呈现下降趋势.③ 通过线性趋势和EOF分析表明北疆地区高温和低温事件强度、频数呈现增加的趋势.由于北疆属于干旱与半干旱地区,生态环境较为脆弱.极端气温趋势的增加会影响到该地区的水文、工业和农业管理.

... 张延伟等,2016 ...

2005

0.0

郑景云, 满志敏, 方修琦, 葛全胜. 2005. 魏晋南北朝时期的中国东部温度变化. 第四纪研究, 25(2): 129-140.

[Zheng J

, Man Z

, Fang X

, Ge Q

. 2005. Temperature variation in the eastern China during Wei Jin and South-North Dynasties(220~580 A. D. ). Quaternary Research, 25(2): 129-140]

Based on records of abnormal frost dates and snowfalls, as well as the description on plant phenophase in the historical documents during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties (220～580A.D.), the winter half-year temperature anomaly for every 30 years and for some decades ineastern China is estimated. The temperature variation during this period is compared with other natural proxy evidence. The main conclusions are as the following: (1) The climate in the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties was cold. During this period, the winter half-year temperature on average in the eastern China was 0 5℃ lower than that of the present (1951～1980), the temperature in the coldest 30 years (480s～500s) was 1 2℃ lower than that of the present. According to the reconstructed temperature, the extreme cold events recorded in the historical documents, and the advancement of glaciers in the mountains in the western China, it is inferred that the cold climate during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties is the one comparable with the Little Ice Age (LIA) for the past 2 000 years. (2) There was a centennial scale variation of cold-warm-cold trend during the period. The two cold troughs appeared around 270s～350s and 450s～530s, when the winter half-year temperature for the eastern China was about 0.5℃ (270s～350s) and 0.9℃ (450s～530s) lower than that of the present day. Though 360s～440s was a relatively warmer, the winter half-year temperature was still lower than that of the present. Noted here that the veritable temperature in the east of China during the Wei, Jin and South-North Dynasties might be even lower than the reconstructed temperature in this paper because the minimal anomaly days of extreme date of frost or snow to the present are used for estimating the temperature anomaly at that time.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101; 2. Institute of Chinese History and Geography, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433; 3. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

根据魏晋南北朝时期的异常霜雪记载及植物物候记述,推算了中国东部地区部分年代及每30年的冬半年温度距平;并结合有关自然证据,分析了魏晋南北朝时期中国的冷暖变化特征。主要结论有:1)魏晋南北朝时期中国东部冬半年温度距平较现代约低05℃,最冷的30年(480s～500s)较现代约低12℃,是一个可与小冰期相比拟的寒冷气候阶段。2)魏晋南北朝的温度存在“冷-暖-冷”世纪波动;其中两个冷谷为270s～350s及450s～530s,当时中国东部冬半年温度分别较现代低05℃(270s～350s)和09℃(450s～530s);而360s～440s虽然相对温暖,但当时中国东部冬半年温度仍较现代略低。

... 郑景云等(2005)根据中国东部地区的异常霜雪及河湖结冰记录重建的冬半年温度距平序列,识别出魏晋南北朝220#cod#x02014 ...

2014

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郑景云, 郝志新, 方修琦, 葛全胜. 2014a. 中国过去2000年极端气候事件变化的若干特征. 地理科学进展, 33(1): 3-12.

[Zheng J

, Hao Z

, Fang X

, Ge Q

. 2014a. Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China. Progress in Geography, 33(1): 3-12]

In the current research on climate changes it is a hot topic to study the changes of extreme climatic events during historical periods. In this paper, based on the reconstructions from multiple proxy types including historical documents, tree-rings, ice cores and lake sediments in the published literature of the recent 20 years, we summarized the characteristics of changes of extreme climate events during the past 2000 years in China. The analysis shows that: (1) During the cold periods of 1500-1900 and 220-580, there appeared extremely cold winters that were even colder than the cold winters in the years after 1950, and there appeared hot summers with daily highest temperature exceeding record high of the years in the 20th century as well. In the past 1600 years, the cold summer events in Northeast of China mainly occurred during the period of 1400-1900. (2) In the eastern monsoon region of China, the extreme drought events prevailed during the periods of 301-400, 751-800, 1051-1150, 1501-1550 and 1601-1650, the extreme flood events often occurred during the periods of 101-150, 251-300, 951-1000, 1701-1750, 1801-1850 and 1901-1950, and for the period of 1551-1600, coexisting extreme drought and extreme flood events occurred most frequently. The frequency of persistent extreme drought was higher during the 7th-8th century, 12th-14th century and late-15th century to mid-17th century; the frequency of sustaining extreme flood was higher during the 10th-11th century and after the mid-17th century. The time intervals of extreme drought/flood events are different in North China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley and south of Yangtze River. In addition, the notable extreme drought events, such as "Chong Zhen Drought" in the Ming Dynasty, and "Ding Wu Famine" in the Qing Dynasty, were recognized. (3) In the arid region of Northwest China, the extreme drought events mainly occurred during the periods of 1471-1520, 1581-1650, 1711-1760, 1811-1860 and 1921-1970. 1710s was the most severe drought decade during the past 1000 years. However, due to the very limited climate proxy data for this region, the primary characteristics of complete change process of the extreme events were difficult to evaluate. (4) Although drought frequently occurred in southwest of China during the early 21th century, the extreme drought events as severe as the one in Sichuan and Chongqing in 2006 occurred many times during the historical periods.

1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing 100101, China; 2. School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

历史时期极端气候事件变化是当前气候变化研究的热点领域。本文根据近20 年这一研究领域的主要文献，对中国过去2000 年极端气候事件变化特征进行了梳理和总结。已有认识表明：① 在1500-1900 年和220-580年等气候寒冷期，中国不但多次出现过较1950 年以后所出现的极端冷冬更为显著的寒冷事件，而且其间的相对温暖时段也出现过日最高气温超过20 世纪极端记录的炎夏。② 在中国东部季风区，在公元301-400、751-800、1051-1150、1501-1550 和1601-1650 年极端干旱多发；101-150、251-300、951-1000、1701-1750、1801-1850 和1901-1950 年极端大涝多发；1551-1600 年则是极端干旱与大涝并发最为频繁的时段。7-8 世纪、12-14 世纪和15 世纪后期-17 世纪中期多发极端连旱；10-11 世纪及17 世纪中期以后，多发极端连涝。华北、江淮和江南3 个地区的极端干旱和大涝事件多发时段存在差异；此外，历史极端连旱事件如“崇祯大旱”和“丁戊奇荒”等也得到辨识。③ 在西北干旱区，极端干旱主要集中发生在1471-1520 年、1581-1650 年、1711-1760 年、1811-1860 年和1921-1970 年等5个时段，其中18 世纪10 年代可能是过去千年极端干旱最严重的年代。④ 在西南地区，虽然21 世纪初旱灾频发，但与2006年川渝特大干旱相仿的事件在史上也曾多次发生过。

... 郑景云等,2014a) ...

... 对于历史极端冷暖事件,受历史文献偏重记载寒冷事件而较少记载温暖事件的影响,历史极端高温事件极难得到识别,冷事件的研究远多于暖事件(郑景云等,2014a) ...

2014

0.0

郑景云, 葛全胜, 郝志新, 刘浩龙, 满志敏, 侯甬坚, 方修琦. 2014b. 历史文献中的气象记录与气候变化定量重建方法. 第四纪研究, 34(6): 1186-1196.

[Zheng J

, Ge Q

, Hao Z

, Liu H

, Man Z

, Hou Y

, Fang X

. 2014b. Paleoclimatology proxy recorded in historical documents and method for reconstruction on climate change. Quaternary Research, 34(6): 1186-1196]

As one of principal paleoclimatology proxy, documentary data have been proved to be of unique importance for reconstructions of climate change in quantitative for past thousands of years. This paper provides an overview of the information of meteorological records derived from Chinese historical documents and the advantages and drawbacks of historical records used as data sources on paleoclimatology reconstruction. Special attention is given to the su mmary on principal approaches for the reconstruction of climate change in quantitative based on various information recorded in different documentary sources. Furthermore, the reconstructions of temperature and wet/dry changes in central eastern China for the past 2000 years are presented, which were reconstructed by calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively. It aims to provide the methodology for the derivation of proxy data from historical documents in objective and the reconstruction of climate change in high quality. As well as, it will help to improve the approaches for future study on reconstruction of climate parameters and climate changes in higher confident level by using documentary evidences. In brief, there are 4 kinds of meteorological records from historical documents: weather observations, climate extreme and disasters, plant phenology and weather-dependent natural phenomena, descriptions and impacts of local or regional climate. They were recorded in different documents with different format, continuity, as well as the level of details and degree of quantitative descriptions. The approaches of regression analysis, physical model, grade assessment (by an ideal frequency criteria usually) with indices on an ordinal scale, counting (especially for frequency of climate event or disasters), analogy analysis are usually used for derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters to reconstruct time series. However, the approaches for the derivation and calibration between documentary proxies and climate parameters in quantitative reconstruction of time series vary with the types of records. For example, the drought/flood grade was usually assessed by an ideal frequency criteria with 10% for severe drought in grade 1, 20% for drought in grade 2, 40% for normal in grade 3, 20% for flood in grade 4, and 10% for heavy flood in grade 5, based on the description of intensity, duration and area of the disaster, as well as its impact respectively. To deal with the discontinuities in original data for reconstructing a time series in consistency, the approaches of regression analysis, variance match, de-trending of the available records are always adopted for calibration on assembling several separate data derived from different documentary sources and different periods respectively. Moreover, it's necessary to formulate more approaches, especially for data interpolation, in future study.

① Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101; ② Center for Historical Geographical Studies of Fudan University, Shanghai 200433; ③ Institute for Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development in Northwest China, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi'an 710062; ④ School of Geography, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875

历史文献记载是研究古气候变化的主要代用证据之一, 对于定量重建过去数千年的气候变化序列具有独特价值。本文分析了中国历史文献中气象记录的特点及主要内容, 重点梳理了利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的基本方法, 并列举了通过多源记载集成、多时段记录衔接重建过去2000年中国东中部地区温度与干湿变化序列的校准案例; 旨在为客观提取气候变化信息、获取高信度的气候变化数据和进一步发展利用文献记载定量重建气候变化序列的方法提供参考依据。主要认识是:1)历史文献中的气象记录主要有4类: 天气、气象灾害、物候与区域气候特征及其影响记载; 定量重建气候序列的基本方法有: 回归分析、物理模型、分等定级、频次统计、类比分析等, 但各类记录的来源、格式、连续性、详略与定量化程度不一, 导致利用各类记录定量重建气候变化序列的方法也各不相同。2)对根据多源记载或不同方法反演的代用记录进行集成, 利用回归分析、方差匹配、记录影响趋势剔除等校准技术, 加强多源数据的相互插补方法研究, 可解决古代气象记录的漏、缺记问题, 是重建连续气候变化序列的主要途径。

... 文献记载有时空覆盖度和分辨率较高、定年准确的特点,对于定量重建过去的气候有独特的优势(郑景云等,2014b),已经形成的一些综合性集成成果如文献记录汇编和电子数据库为获取历史气候资料提供了便利 ...

2007

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邹旭恺, 高辉. 2007. 2006年夏季川渝高温干旱分析. 气候变化研究进展, 3(3): 149-153.

[Zou X

, Gao

. 2007. Analysis of severe drought and heat wave over the Sichuan Basin in the summer of 2006. Advances in Climate Change Research, 3(3): 149-153]

In the summer of 2006, severe heat wave and drought hit Chongqing municipality and Sichuan Province, causing dramatic economic losses and environmental damages. The comprehensive effect of the weather-related disturbances and global warming may be the reasons for the occurrence of the warm extremes in Chongqing and Sichuan in the summer of 2006, but the random weather-related disturbances contribute most to the local warm extremes in last summer. It is indicated that less cold air activities, northward locations of subtropical high ridgeline, and less snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau in the winter and spring of 2005/2006 are the main three direct causes for the extremely hot and dry weather over the above-mentioned areas in the summer of 2006.

2006年夏季，我国重庆、四川等地持续高温少雨，遭遇特大伏旱，影响严重。初步分析表明，2006年盛夏川渝的异常高温事件可能是受全球变暖和天气扰动共同作用的结果，但以天气扰动的影响为主。大气环流异常，北方南下冷空气活动偏弱，西北太平洋副高脊线偏北以及冬季青藏高原积雪偏少是导致该地区2006年严重高温干旱的直接原因。

... 邹旭恺和高辉,2006) ...

2006

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... Alexander et al ...

2010

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... Ding et al ...

1997

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... 随着全球变暖,极端暖事件的发生频率明显增加(Easterling et al ...

2012

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... 1 概述极端气候事件指特定时段内气候要素量值或统计量显著偏离平均状态,且达到或超出其观测值或统计量值区间上下限附近特定阈值的事件(IPCC,2012 ...

... 气候变化背景下,极端气候事件的发生频率有增加的趋势(IPCC,2012) ...

1999

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... Karl and Easterling,1999 ...

2011

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... Min et al ...

2007

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2003

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... 在中国,随着气温上升,高温、热浪事件的频次和强度增加(Zhai et al ...