Abstract：The study of incidence and attributes of regional extreme climatic events under the background of global change is a frontier of climate change research. This paper reconstructs the extreme flooding events with a probability of 10% in the Northeast China in 1750-2020 using historical documentary records and precipitation data,and then analyzes its incidence characteristics and driving mechanism. The main conclusions include: (1)In 1750-2020,29 extreme flooding events were identified in the Northeast China,exhibiting fluctuating patterns,with 1871 to 1930 marking the period of highest frequency over the past 270 years;(2)The global and regional warming significantly enhanced the frequency of extreme flooding events in the Northeast China;(3)The anomaly of the monsoon rain belt caused by the change of the East Asian summer monsoon is the direct cause of the occurrence of extreme flooding events in the Northeast China. Particularly,periods with a stronger monsoon and a northward shift in the rain belt significantly raise the likelihood of such events;(4)The Indo-Pacific warm pool and the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific caused the incidence of extreme floods events in northeast China by affecting the location of the East Asian summer monsoon and the water vapor transport. The positive anomaly of water vapor transport at the time of La Niña years is crucial for the occurrence of extreme flooding,and is a reliable predictor of extreme flooding events in the Northeast China.
YU Xiangyu,YANG Yuda. Reconstruction and driving mechanism analysis of extreme flood events in Northeast China in 1750-2020[J]. JOPC, 2024, 26(3): 753-762.
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