Reconstruction and analysis of sequence of extreme drought events in north of China during AD 1000-2000
Han Jian-Fu1,2, Yang Yu-Da2, Man Zhi-Min2
1 School of Marxism,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,China; 2 Institute of Chinese Historical Geography,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China
Abstract：Based on historical documents records as proxy data,we reconstructed the sequence of extreme drought events in North China during AD 1000-2000, and then analysed the characteristics and principle of these extreme drought events. Main conclusions from this study are as follows: (1)The extreme drought events show oscillations with a period of 200 a,and there exist three high-incidence periods including the middle 15th century,the early 17th century and the late 18th century. (2)Changes of extreme drought events are consistent with humidity changes in the eastern China. When the humidity is low,the probability of extreme droughts is high,and vice versa. (3)Extreme drought events are more likely to occur during the medieval and modern warm periods,and the coldest period in the Little Ice Age. (4)When the relationship between humidity and extreme drought events is considered, there is a stable inverse correlation between the North China monsoon regions and non-monsoon areas that influenced by westerly wind. This phenomenon is probably affected by “silk road pattern”and NAO(North Atlantic Oscillation).
Han Jian-Fu,Yang Yu-Da,Man Zhi-Min. Reconstruction and analysis of sequence of extreme drought events in north of China during AD 1000-2000[J]. JOPC, 2019, 21(4): 675-684.
[1] 陈发虎,陈建徽,黄伟. 2009. 中纬度亚洲现代间冰期气候变化的“西风模式”讨论. 地学前缘, 16(6): 23-32. [Chen F H,Chen J H,Huang W.2009. A discussion on the westerly-dominated climate model in mid-latitude Asia during the modern interglacial period. Earth Science Frontiers, 16(6): 023-032] [2] 丁一汇. 2013. 中国气候. 北京: 科学出版社,345. [Ding Y H.2013. Climate of China. Beijing: Science Press,345] [3] 郝志新,郑景云,葛全胜. 2010. 过去2000年中国东部地区的极端旱涝事件变化. 气候与环境研究, 15(4): 388-394. [Hao Z X,Zheng J Y,Ge Q S.2010. Variations of extreme drought/flood events over eastern China during the past 2000 years. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4): 388-394] [4] 黄磊,邵雪梅,刘洪滨,王树芝,朱海峰,徐岩,梁尔源,尹红. 2010. 树轮记录的青海柴达木盆地过去2800年来的极端干旱事件. 气候与环境研究, 15(4): 379-387. [Huang L,Shao X M,Liu H B,Wang S Z,Zhu H F,Xu Y,Liang E Y,Yin H.2010. A 2800-year tree-ring record of severe sustained extreme drought events in Qaidam Basin,Qinghai. Climatic and Environmental Research, 15(4): 379-387] [5] 黄伟. 2014. 中纬度亚洲年代际—年际尺度气候变化的“西风模态”及其驱动机制研宄. 兰州大学博士论文,1-107. [Huang W.2014. Westerlies-dominated Climate Regime’s in the Mid-latitude Asia on Decadal and Interannual Time Scales and Their Physical Mechanisms. Doctoral Dissertation of Lanzhou University,1-107] [6] 黄伟,陈建徽,张肖剑,FENG Song,陈发虎. 2015. 现代气候条件下降水变化的“西风模态”空间范围及其影响因子初探. 中国科学: 地球科学, 45(4): 379-388. [Huang W,Chen J H,Zhang X J,FENG S,Chen F H.2015. Definition of the core zone of the“westerlies-dominated climatic regime”,and its controlling factors during the instrumental period. Science China: Earth Sciences, 45(4): 379-388] [7] 梁潇云,刘屹岷,吴国雄. 2005. 青藏高原对亚洲夏季风爆发位置及强度的影响. 气象学报, 63(5): 799-805. [Liang X Y,Liu Y M,Wu G X.2005. Effect of Tibetan Plateau on the site of Onset and Intensity of the Asian Summer Monsoon. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 63(5): 799-805] [8] 刘焕才,段克勤. 2012. 北大西洋涛动对青藏高原夏季降水的影响. 冰川冻土, 34(2): 311-319. [Liu H C,Duan K Q.2012. Effects of North Atlantic Oscillation on summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology, 34(2): 311-319] [9] 刘晓东,侯萍. 1999. 青藏高原中东部夏季降水变化及其与北大西洋涛动的联系. 气象学报,57(5): 561-570. [Liu X D,Hou P.1999. Variation of summer rainfall over Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its association with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 57(5): 561-570] [10] 刘晓东,田良,韦志刚. 1994. 青藏高原地表反射率变化对东亚夏季风影响的数值试验. 高原气象, 13(4): 468-472. [Liu X D,Tian L,Wei Z G.1994. Numerical experiments of influences of surface albedo variation in Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on East-Asia summer monsoon. Plateau Meteorology, 13(4): 468-472] [11] 邵雪梅,粱尔源,黄磊,王丽丽. 2006. 柴达木盆地东北部过去1437a的降水变化重建. 气候变化研究进展, 2(3): 122-126. [Shao X M,Liang E Y,Huang L,Wang L L.2006. A recontracted precipitation series over the past millennium in Northeastern Qaidam Basin. Advanced in Climate Change Research, 2(3): 122-126] [12] 魏凤英. 1999. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术. 北京: 气象出版社,69. [Wei F Y.1999. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology. Beijing: China Meteorological Press,69] [13] 温克刚. 2005a. 中国气象灾害大典·北京卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2005. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Beijing Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [14] 温克刚. 2005b. 中国气象灾害大典·甘肃卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2005. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Gansu Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [15] 温克刚. 2005c. 中国气象灾害大典·河南卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2005. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Henan Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [16] 温克刚. 2007a. 中国气象灾害大典·安徽卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2007. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Anhui Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [17] 温克刚. 2007b. 中国气象灾害大典·宁夏卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2007. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Ningxia Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [18] 温克刚. 2007c. 中国气象灾害大典·陕西卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2007. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Shaanxi Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [19] 温克刚. 2007d. 中国气象灾害大典·青海卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2007. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Qinghai Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [20] 温克刚. 2008a. 中国气象灾害大典·河北卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2008. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Hebei Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [21] 温克刚. 2008b. 中国气象灾害大典·江苏卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2008. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Jiangsu Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [22] 温克刚. 2008c. 中国气象灾害大典·天津卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2008. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Tianjin Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [23] 温克刚. 2010a. 中国气象灾害大典·山东卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2010. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Shandong Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [24] 温克刚. 2010b. 中国气象灾害大典·山西卷. 北京: 气象出版社. [Wen K G.2010. China’s Meteorological Disaster Ceremony: Shanxi Volume. Beijing: China Meteorological Press] [25] 吴国雄,张永生. 1998. 青藏高原的热力强迫和机械强迫作用以及亚洲季风的爆发Ⅰ: 爆发地点. 大气科学,23(6): 825-833. [Wu G X,Zhang Y S.1998. Thermal and mechanical forcing of the Tibetan Plateau and the Asian Monsoon onset. Part Ⅰ: Situating of the onset. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 23(6): 825-833] [26] 杨莲梅,张庆云. 2008. 北大西洋涛动对新疆夏季降水异常的影响. 大气科学, 32(5): 1187-1196. [Yang L M,Zhang Q Y.2008. Effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the summer rainfall anomalies in Xinjiang. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 32(5): 1187-1196] [27] 杨煜达,韩健夫. 2014. 历史时期极端气候事件的甄别方法研究:以西北千年旱灾序列为例. 上海: 上海人民出版社. 历史地理, 30(2): 10-29. [Yang Y D,Han J F.2014. A Study of Screening Method of Extreme Weather Events in History Based on an Analysis of a Sequence of Millennium Drought in Northwest China. Shanghai: Shanghai People’s Publishing House. Historical Geography, 30(2): 10-29] [28] 袁林. 1994. 西北灾荒史. 兰州: 甘肃人民出版社. [Yuan L.1994. History of Famines in Northwest China.Lanzhou: Gansu People’s Publishing House] [29] 张德二. 2013. 中国三千年气象记录总集(增订本). 南京: 凤凰出版社,江苏教育出版社. [Zhang D E.2013. A Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the last 3000 Years(Revised and Enlarged). Nanjing: Phoenix Publishing House,Jiangsu Education Publishing House] [30] 郑景云,郝志新,方修琦,葛全胜. 2014. 中国过去2000年极端气候事件变化的若干特征. 地理科学进展, 33(1): 3-12. [Zheng J Y,Hao Z X,Fang X Q,Ge Q S.2014. Changing characteristics of extreme climate events during past 2000 years in China. Progress in Geography, 33(1): 3-12] [31] 中央气象局气象科学研究院. 1981. 中国近五百年旱涝分布图集. 北京: 中国地图出版社. [Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,China Meteorological Administration. 1981. Yearly Charts of Dryness/Wetness in China for the Last 500-year Period. Beijing: SinoMaps Press.] [32] 周秀骥,赵平,刘舸,周天军. 2011. 中世纪暖期、小冰期与现代东亚夏季风环流和降水年代—百年尺度变化特征分析. 科学通报, 56(25): 2060-2067. [Zhou X J,Zhao P,Liu G,Zhou T J.2011. Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56(25): 2060-2067] [33] Chen F H,Chen J H,Holmes J,Ian B,Patrick A,John B G,Wang N L,Stephen J B,Zhang J W.2010. Moisture changes over the last millennium in arid central Asia: A review,synthesis and comparison with monsoon region. Quaternary Science Review, 29(7): 1055-1068. [34] Ge Q S,Zheng J Y,Fang X Q,Man Z M,Zhang X Q,Zhang P Y,Wang W C.2003. Winter half-year temperature reconstruction for the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Yangtze River,China,during the past 2000 years. Holocene, 13(6): 933-940. [35] Ge Q S,Zheng J Y,Hao Z X,Liu Y,Li M Q.2016. Recent advances on reconstruction of climate and extreme events in China for the past 2000 years. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 26(7): 827-854. [36] Lee H F,Zhang D D.2011. Relationship between NAO and drought disasters in northwestern China in the last millennium. Journal of Arid Environments, 75(11): 1114-1120. [37] Tan L C,Cai Y J,Li Y,Li A.2008. Precipitation variations of Longxi,northeast margin of Tibetan Plateau since AD960 and their relationship with solar activity. Climate of the Past,4(1): 19-28. [38] Yang B,Qin C,Wang J L,He M H,Thomas M M,Timothy O,Keith B.2014. A 3500-year tree-ring record of annual precipitation on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(8): 2903-2908. [39] Zhang P Z,Cheng H,Edwards R L,Chen F H,Wang Y J,Yang X L,Liu J,Tan M,Wang X F,Liu J H,An C L,Dai Z B,Zhou J,Zhang D Z,Jia J H,Jin L Y,Johnson K R.2008. A test of climate,sun and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave records. Science, 322(5903): 940-942. [40] Zheng J Y,Wang W C,Ge Q S,Man Z M,Zhang P Y.2006. Precipitation variability and extreme events in eastern China during the Past 1500 Years. Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 17(3): 579-592. [41] Zhou T J,Yu R C.2005. Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous summer rainfall patterns in China. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 110(D8): 211.
