Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019
LI Liang1,2,3, GUO Junli3, SHI Lianqiang3, ZHANG Yongzhan1,2
1 School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China; 2 Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China; 3 The Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China
Abstract:Historically,two kinds of storm surge disasters occurred frequently along the coast of Jiangsu Province,which brought huge losses to this region. Establishing a long-term sequence of these disasters is crucial for understanding historical patterns and forecasting future events. Based on the records of storm surges in historical documents,local chronicles,marine disaster bulletins,etc.,a storm surge disaster identification system has been established,and the storm surge disaster sequence along the coast of Jiangsu Province from 1300 to 2019 has been reconstructed. Then,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the storm surge disaster along Jiangsu coast have been analyzed. Finally,the relationship between the storm surge disaster and climate anomalies,the evolution of the estuaries of the Yellow River and the Changjiang River have been explored. Our analysis of the temporal and spatial variations reveals that Jiangsu's coast experienced 246 storm surge disasters from 1300 to 2019,averaging one every 2.9 years,with a notable increase in frequency over the past century. There are 17,61 and 115 year time scale cycles in the interannual variation by wavelet analysis,of which the 115 year cycle is most pronounced. We observed that typhoon storm surges tend to decrease during active El Niño years,possibly due to air-sea interactions. Additionally,our study indicates a positive correlation between temperature rise and the frequency of typhoon storm surges,although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Geographically,Yancheng,Nantong,and Suzhou are the regions with high incidence of storm surge disasters,while Changzhou and Wuxi are less affected. Since 1855,climate warming and coastal erosion and siltation changes in Jiangsu Province,result in an increase in storm surge disasters in Yancheng and Nantong,and a significant rise in the Lianyungang region. Following the migration of coastline and the evolution of the Changjiang River estuary,the impact of storm surge disasters in Zhenjiang,Yangzhou,Taizhou,and Suzhou,Wuxi,and Changzhou regions has decreased.
LI Liang,GUO Junli,SHI Lianqiang et al. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019[J]. JOPC, 2024, 26(1): 241-254.
[1] 陈吉余,恽才兴,徐海根,董永发. 1979. 两千年来长江河口发育的模式. 海洋学报, 1(1): 103-111. [Chen J Y,Yun C X,Xu H G,Dong Y F.1979. The developmental model of the Chang Jiang River Estuary during last 2000 years. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1(1): 103-111] [2] 陈才俊. 1991. 江苏沿海特大风暴潮灾研究. 海洋通报, 10(6): 19-24. [Chen C J.1991. On disastrous storm surges upon coast of Jiangsu Province. Marine Science Bulletin, 10(6): 19-24] [3] 曹楚,彭加毅,余锦华. 2006. 全球气候变暖背景下登陆我国台风特征的分析. 南京气象学院学报, 29(4): 455-461. [Cao C,Peng J Y,Yu J H.2006. An analysis on the characteristics of landfalling typhoons in China under global climate warming. Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, 29(4): 455-461] [4] 邓辉,王洪波. 2015.1368—1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征. 地理研究, 34(12): 2343-2354. [Deng H,Wang H B.2015. Spatial and temporal patterns of storm surges in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces from 1368 to 1911. Geographical Research, 34(12): 2343-2354] [5] 冯利华. 2003. 中国登陆热带气旋与太平洋海表温度的关系. 地理学报, 58(2): 209-214. [Feng L H.2003. Relationship between tropical cyclones landing in China and sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Acta Geographica Sinica, 58(2): 209-214] [6] 葛全胜,方修琦,郑景云. 2014. 中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示. 地球科学进展, 29(1): 23-29. [Ge Q S,Fang X Q,Zheng J Y.2014. Learning from the historical impacts of climatic change in China. Advances in Earth Science, 29(1): 23-29] [7] 陆人骥. 1984. 中国历代灾害性海潮史料. 北京: 海洋出版社,56-295. [Lu R J.1984. Historical materials of disastrous tides in China in past dynasties. Beijing: Ocean Press,56-295] [8] 陆丽云,陈君,张忍顺. 2002. 江苏沿海的风暴潮灾害及其防御对策. 灾害学, 17(1): 26-31. [Lu L Y,Chen J,Zhang R S.2002. Disasters of storm tide along the coast in Jiangsu and the countermeasures. Journal of Catastrophology, 17(1): 26-31] [9] 凌申. 2002. 地名与历史时期江苏海岸变迁的相关研究. 海洋科学, 26(1): 26-29. [Ling S.2002. Relevant studies of the placenames and changes of Jiangsu coastlines during the historical periods. Marine Sciences, 26(1): 26-29] [10] 梁有叶,张德二. 2007. 最近一千年来我国的登陆台风及其与ENSO的关系. 气候变化研究进展, 3(2): 120-121. [Liang Y Y,Zhang D E.2007. Landing typhoon in China during the last millennium and its relationship with ENSO. Advances in Climate Change Research, 3(2): 120-121] [11] 毛兰花,查轩,黄少燕,陈世发,戴金梅,白永会,张婧,邱占林. 2018.1951—2016年ENSO事件对登陆中国热带气旋的影响. 水土保持研究, 25(5): 325-329,336. [Mao L H,Zha X,Huang S Y,Chen S F,Dai J M,Bai Y H,Zhang J,Qiu Z L.2018. The impact of ENSO events on the landed tropical cyclone in China during 1951—2016. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 25(5): 325-329,336] [12] 刘珊,王英华,石先武,贾宁,孙雨希,刘强. 2020. 公元前48年—公元1949年我国4类主要海洋灾害的史料统计与分析. 海洋环境科学, 39(4): 544-550. [Liu S,Wang Y H,Shi X W,Jia N,Sun Y X,Liu Q.2020. The historical records research of four kinds of marine disasters in China from B.C.48 to 1949. Marine Environmental Science, 39(4): 544-550] [13] 任美锷. 1986. 江苏省海岸带与海涂资源调查报告. 北京: 海洋出版社,101-106,114-116. [Ren M E.1986. Report on The Investigation of Coastal Zone and Seabeach Resources in Jiangsu Province. Beijing: Ocean Press,101-106,114-116] [14] 任美锷,张忍顺,杨巨海,章大初. 1983. 风暴潮对淤泥质海岸的影响: 以江苏省淤泥质海岸为例. 海洋地质与第四纪地质, 3(4): 1-24. [Ren M E,Zhang N S,Yang J H,Zhang D C.1983. The influence of storm tide on mud plain coast:with special reference to Jiangsu Province. Marine Geology & Quaternary Geology, 3(4): 1-24] [15] 史键辉,王名文,王永信,于斌,夏综万. 2000. 风暴潮和风暴灾害分级问题的探讨. 海洋预报, 17(2): 12-15. [Shi J H,Wang M W,Wang Y X,Yu B,Xia Z W.2000. Discussion on classification of storm surge and storm disaster. Marine Forecasts, 17(2): 12-15] [16] 石先武,高廷,谭骏,国志兴. 2018. 我国沿海风暴潮灾害发生频率空间分布研究. 灾害学, 33(1): 49-52. [Shi X W,Gao T,Tan J,Guo Z X.2018. Research on occurrence frequency of storm surge disaster distribution in the coastal areas of China. Journal of Catastrophology, 33(1): 49-52] [17] 索南才吉,平措次旺,强久卓玛. 2022.1971—2020年El Nino事件对珠峰地区冬季气候可能的影响. 农业灾害研究, 12(1): 96-99,102. [SoNan C J,Pingcuo C W,Qiangjiu Z M.2022. Influence of El Nino event on winter in Everest region from 1971 to 2020 possible impacts of climate. Journal of Agricultural Catastropholgy, 12(1): 96-99,102] [18] 同济大学海洋地质系三角洲课题组. 1978. 全新世长江三角洲的形成和发育. 科学通报, 23(5): 310-313. [Delta Research Group,Department of Marine Geology,Tongji University.1978. Formationand development of the Holocene Yangtze River Delta. Chinese Science Bulletin, 23(5): 310-313] [19] 谭丽荣. 2012. 中国沿海地区风暴潮灾害综合脆弱性评估. 华东师范大学博士学位论文: 31. [Tan L R.2012. Assessment on comprehensive vulnerability of storm surge disasters of China's coastal regions. Doctoral dissertation of East China Normal University: 31] [20] 宋兵. 2014. 全新世长江三角洲初始发育及其主要影响因素探讨. 华东师范大学博士学位论文: 8-9. [Song B.2014. Initiation of Changjiang(Yangtze)delta and its primary factors during the Holocene. Doctoral dissertation of East China Normal University: 8-9] [21] 王绍武,赵宗慈. 1979. 近五百年中国旱涝史料的分析. 地理学报, 34(4): 329-341. [Wang S W,Zhao Z C.1979. An analyses of historical data of droughts and floods in last 500 years in China. Acta Geographica Sinica, 34(4): 329-341] [22] 王颖,朱大奎,周旅复,王雪瑜,蒋松柳,李海宇,施丙文,张永战. 1998. 南黄海辐射沙脊群沉积特点及其演变. 中国科学(D辑: 地球科学), 28(5): 385-393. [Wang Y,Zhu D K,Zhou L F,Wang X Y,Jiang S L,Li H Y,Shi B W,Zhang Y Z.1998. Sedimentary characteristics and evolution of radial sand ridges in the South Yellow Sea. Science in China: Series D, Earth Sciences, 28(5): 385-393] [23] 王骊萌,张福青,鹿化煜. 1997. 最近2000年江苏沿海风暴潮灾害的特征. 灾害学, 12(4): 39-43. [Wang L M,Zhang F Q,Lu H Y.1997. Features of storm surge disasters along Jiangsu coastal zone of China in the past 2000 years. Journal of Catastrophology, 12(4): 39-43] [24] 王秀萍,张永宁. 2006. 登陆中国热带气旋路径的年代际变化. 大连海事大学学报, 32(3): 41-45. [Wang X P,Zhang Y N.2006. Interdecadal change of the landing tropical cyclone tracks over China. Journal of Dalian Maritime University, 32(3): 41-45] [25] 王凌,罗勇,徐良炎,张强,陈峪,叶殿秀. 2006. 近35年登陆我国台风的年际变化特征及灾害特点. 科技导报, 24(11): 23-25. [Wang L,Luo Y,Xu L Y,Zhang Q,Chen Y,Ye D X.2006. Review of typhoon and its related natural disasters over the past 35 years in China. Science & Technology Review, 24(11): 23-25] [26] 魏凤英. 2007. 现代气候统计诊断与预测技术(2版). 北京: 气象出版社,63-65. [Wei F Y.2007. Modern Climate Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology(2nd ed). Beijing: China Meteorological Press,63-65] [27] 王洪波. 2016. 明清苏浙沿海台风风暴潮灾害序列重建与特征分析. 长江流域资源与环境, 25(2): 342-349. [Wang H B.2016. Research on sequence reconstruction and characteristics diagnosis of typhoon storm surges affecting Jiangsu and Zhejiang,AD 1368-1911. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 25(2): 342-349] [28] 王峰. 2019. 近千年长江三角洲启东地区沉积环境演变及其反映的黄河南迁影响. 华东师范大学博士学位论文: 4-8. [Wang F.2019. Sedimentary environment evolution in the Qidong area of the Yangtze River Delta during the last 1000 years and the influence of the old Yellow River. Doctoral dissertation of East China Normal University: 4-8] [29] 徐文爽. 2020. 中国沿海地带风暴潮灾害综合风险评估. 中国石油大学硕士学位论文: 29-40. [Xu W S.2020. Comprehensive risk assessment of storm surge disaster in coastal areas of China. Masteral dissertation of China University of Petroleum: 29-40] [30] 杨桂山,施雅风. 1999. 西北太平洋热带气旋频数的变化及与海表温度的相关研究. 地理学报, 54(1): 22-29. [Yang G S,Shi Y F.1999. Changes in the frequencies of tropical cyclones and their relationships to sea surface temperature in the northwestern Pacific. Acta Geographica Sinica, 54(1): 22-29.] [31] 杨桂山. 2000. 中国沿海风暴潮灾害的历史变化及未来趋向. 自然灾害学报, 9(3): 23-30. [Yang G S.2000. Historical change and future trends of storm surge disaster in China's coastal area. Journal of Natural Disasters, 9(3): 23-30] [32] 杨煜达,郑微微. 2008.1849年长江中下游大水灾的时空分布及天气气候特征. 古地理学报, 10(6): 657-664. [Yang Y D,Zheng W W.2008. Spatial and temporal distribution and climatic characteristics of flood in middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in 1849. Journal of Palaeogeography(Chinese Edition), 10(6): 657-664] [33] 杨玉华,应明,陈葆德. 2009. 近58年来登陆中国热带气旋气候变化特征. 气象学报, 67(5): 689-696. [Yang Y H,Ying M,Chen B D.2009. The climatic changes of landfall tropical cyclones in China over the past 58 years. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 67(5): 689-696] [34] 于福江,董剑希,叶琳. 2015. 中国历代灾害性海潮史料(1949-2009). 北京: 海洋出版社,1-743. [Yu F J,Dong J X,Ye L.2015. Historical Materials of Disastrous Tides in China(1949-2009). Beijing: Ocean Press,1-743] [35] 杨达源,张永战. 2016. 人类活动与自然过程. 江苏南京: 南京大学出版社,310-314. [Yang D Y,Zhang Y Z.2016. Human Activities and Natural Processes. Jiangsu Nanjing: Nanjing University Press,310-314] [36] 张德二,薛朝辉. 1994. 公元1500年以来EINino事件与中国降水分布型的关系. 应用气象学报, 5(2): 168-175. [Zhang D E,Xue Z H.1994. Relationship between the El Nino and precipitation patterns in China since 1500 AD. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorlolgy, 5(2): 168-175] [37] 朱诚,程鹏,卢春成,王文. 1996. 长江三角洲及苏北沿海地区7000年以来海岸线演变规律分析. 地理科学, 16(3): 207-214. [Zhu C,Cheng P,Lu C C,Wang W.1996. Analysis of coastline evolution law in Yangtze River Delta and coastal areas of northern Jiangsu since 7000 years. Scientia Gelgraphica Sinica, 16(3): 207-214] [38] 赵赟. 2009. 清代苏北沿海的潮灾与风险防范. 中国农史, 28(4): 131-139. [Zhao Y.2009. Storm surge disasters in north Jiangsu's coastal area and the risk countermeasures during the Qing dynasty. Agricultural History of China, 28(4): 131-139] [39] 张向萍,叶瑜,王辉. 2011. 从1849年长江中下游地区洪涝灾害记录谈整编方志资料的使用. 古地理学报, 13(2): 229-235. [Zhang X P,Ye Y,Wang H.2011. Discussion on application of chorographic compilations from flood disaster records in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in 1849. Journal of Palaeogeography(Chinese Edition), 13(2): 229-235] [40] 张向萍,叶瑜,方修琦. 2013. 公元1644—1949年长江三角洲地区历史台风频次序列重建. 古地理学报, 15(2): 283-292. [Zhang X P,Ye Y,Fang X Q.2013. Reconstructing series of historical typhoon frequency from 1644 AD to 1949 AD in Yangtze River Delta area. Journal of Palaeogeography(Chinese Edition), 15(2): 283-292] [41] 张文达,任政. 2022. 匡门口流域极端降水与ENSO相关性分析. 水利科技与经济, 28(2): 13-19. [Zhang W D,Ren Z.2022. Correlation analysis between extreme precipitation and ENSO in Kuangmenkou basin. Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy, 28(2): 13-19] [42] Barnett T P,Pierce D W,AchutaRao K M,Gleckler P J,Santer B D,Gregory J M,Washington W M.2005. Penetration of human-induced warming into the world's oceans. Science, 309(5732): 284-287. [43] Chen T C,Weng S P,Yamazaki N,Kiehne S.1998. Interannual variation in the tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific. Monthly Weather Review, 126: 1080-1090. [44] Camargo S J,Robertson A W,Gaffney S J,Smyth P,Ghil M.2007. Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks,Part Ⅱ: Large-scale circulation and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20(14): 3654-3676. [45] Chen J L,Wang Z Q,Tam C Y,Lau N C,Lau D S D,Mok H Y.2020. Impacts of climate change on tropical cyclones and induced storm surges in the Pearl River Delta region using pseudo-global-warming method. Scientific Reports, 10: 1965. [46] De Kraker A M J.1999. A method to assess the impact of high tides,storms and storm surges as vital elements in climatic history the case of stormy weather and dikes in the northern part of Flanders,1488 to 1609. Climatic Change, 43: 287-302. [47] De Kraker A M J. 2005. Reconstruction of Storm Frequency in the North Sea Area during the Preindustrial period,1400 to 1625 and the Connection with reconstructed time series of temperatures. History of Meteorology, 2005(2): 51-69. [48] De Kraker A M J.2013. Storminess in the low countries,1390-1725. Environment and History, 19: 149-171. [49] Fudeyasu H,Iizuka S,Matsuura T.2006. Impact of ENSO on landfall characteristics of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific during the summer monsoon season. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(21): L21815. [50] Feng X R,Li M J,Li Y L,Yu F J,Yang D Z,Gao G D,Xu L J,Yin B S.2021. Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO. Scientific Reports, 11: 10137. [51] Huang M F,Wang Q,Liu M F,Lin N,Wang Y F,Jing R Z,Sun J P,Murakami H,Lou W J.2022. Increasing typhoon impact and economic losses due to anthropogenic warming in Southeast China. Scientific Reports, 12: 14048. [52] Khan M J U,Durand F,Emanuel K,Krien Y,Testut L, Islam A K M S. 2022. Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic-deterministic modelling approach. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 22(7): 2359-2379. [53] Mei W,Xie S P.2016. Intensification of landfalling typhoons over the northwest Pacific since the late 1970s. Nature Geoscience, 9: 753-757. [54] Webster P J,Holland G J,Curry J A,Chang H R.2005. Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a warming environment. Science, 309(5742): 1844-1846. [55] Wang B,Chan J C L.2002. How strong ENSO events affect tropical storm activity over the western North Pacific. Journal of Climate, 15(13): 1643-1658. [56] Zhao H K,Wang C Z.2019. On the relationship between ENSO and tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific during the boreal summer. Climate Dynamics, 52: 275-288.