Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019
LI Liang1,2,3, GUO Junli3, SHI Lianqiang3, ZHANG Yongzhan1,2
1 School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China; 2 Key Laboratory of Coast and Island Development of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China; 3 The Second Institute of Oceanography,Ministry of Natural Resources,Hangzhou 310012,China
Abstract：Historically,two kinds of storm surge disasters occurred frequently along the coast of Jiangsu Province,which brought huge losses to this region. Establishing a long-term sequence of these disasters is crucial for understanding historical patterns and forecasting future events. Based on the records of storm surges in historical documents,local chronicles,marine disaster bulletins,etc.,a storm surge disaster identification system has been established,and the storm surge disaster sequence along the coast of Jiangsu Province from 1300 to 2019 has been reconstructed. Then,the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the storm surge disaster along Jiangsu coast have been analyzed. Finally,the relationship between the storm surge disaster and climate anomalies,the evolution of the estuaries of the Yellow River and the Changjiang River have been explored. Our analysis of the temporal and spatial variations reveals that Jiangsu's coast experienced 246 storm surge disasters from 1300 to 2019,averaging one every 2.9 years,with a notable increase in frequency over the past century. There are 17,61 and 115 year time scale cycles in the interannual variation by wavelet analysis,of which the 115 year cycle is most pronounced. We observed that typhoon storm surges tend to decrease during active El Niño years,possibly due to air-sea interactions. Additionally,our study indicates a positive correlation between temperature rise and the frequency of typhoon storm surges,although the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Geographically,Yancheng,Nantong,and Suzhou are the regions with high incidence of storm surge disasters,while Changzhou and Wuxi are less affected. Since 1855,climate warming and coastal erosion and siltation changes in Jiangsu Province,result in an increase in storm surge disasters in Yancheng and Nantong,and a significant rise in the Lianyungang region. Following the migration of coastline and the evolution of the Changjiang River estuary,the impact of storm surge disasters in Zhenjiang,Yangzhou,Taizhou,and Suzhou,Wuxi,and Changzhou regions has decreased.
LI Liang,GUO Junli,SHI Lianqiang et al. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of storm surge disasters in Jiangsu coastal area from 1300 to 2019[J]. JOPC, 2024, 26(1): 241-254.
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