Abstract：Based on the information about historical disaster kept in the Qing History,annual frequency series of locust plague,flood and drought in North China during the Qing dynasty(1644-1911 AD)have been reconstructed,and the spatial distribution of the three disasters has been described with Kernel Density Estimation. It is found that locust plague occurred more frequently in 1640s-1690s and 1800s-1850s,and mainly distributed in the plains of Hebei,Shandong and Henan Province,as well as the Fen river valley in Shanxi Province. The frequency series of locust plague has significant positive correlation with drought under the inter-annual scale,which means drought would trigger locust plague. However,extreme drought event could also limit the severity of locust plague. In the years of flood,the occurrence rate of locust plague was below the average. Large-scale locust plague might occur in the flood disaster areas in the next years when it turned drier. The areas with frequent locust plague have good spatial relationship with flood and drought. However,the areas with the highest risk of locust do not exactly coincide with flood and drought because of the influence mechanism,as well as the habits and lifestyle of the oriental migratory locust. There is a crescent region with the most frequent locust plague in western Hebei Province. The locusts emigrating from their breeding places which distributed in the low-lying alluvial land in the downstream of Hai River are forced to stop and swarm in this region by the Taihang Mountains. The above results would benefit better understanding of the mechanism of locust plague in the past,and provide references for fighting against locust plague under the background of climate change.
Xiao Ling-Bo. Spatial-temporal distribution of locust plague and its relationship with flood/drought in North China during the Qing Dynasty[J]. JOPC, 2018, 20(6): 1113-1122.
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