关键词: 食管癌, 死亡率, 年龄-时期-队列模型

Abstract: Objective The Objective of this study was to investigate the changing trend of esophageal cancer mortality in Beijing from 1990 to 2019,and to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Methods Based on the surveillance data of death causes in Beijing from 1990 to 2019,the age-period-cohort(APC)model and endogenous estimator factor(IE)method were used to estimate the age,period and cohort effect of death risk of esophageal cancer in Beijing. Results The mortality of esophageal cancer in Beijing from 1990 to 2019 decreased in a fluctuating manner,with the minimum value of 7.12/100,000(2000—2004),rising to 7.93/100,00(2010—2014)and then began to decline.The standardized mortality showed a downward trend,from 12.53/100,000(1990)to 4.04/100,000(2019),a drop of 67.78%.In 1990,the standardized mortality of male in Beijing was 2.4 times than that of female,and this ratio increased to 4.9 times in 2019.The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of the death risk of esophageal cancer in Beijing increased with age,and the death risk of 80-84 years old group was the highest,with a mortality risk coefficient of 1.957;the period effect was relatively flat,and the relative risk from 2015 to 2019 was 0.852.The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend,and the rate of change fluctuated greatly.Compared with those born in 1910—1914,the relative risk of esophageal cancer death for people born in 1980—1984 was 0.032. Conclusion The mortality of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in Beijing.The death risk of esophageal cancer is related to age and birth cohort effects.The older the age,the higher the death risk,and the later the birth,the lower the death risk.It is necessary to focus on strengthen the prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer in men and middle-aged and elderly people.

Key words: Esophageal cancer, Mortality, Age-period-cohort model