Abstract: Objective The Objective of this study was to analyze the effect of age-time-cohort model on long-term trend of biliary tract cancer mortality in China from 1990 to 2019,and to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control of biliary tract cancer.Methods Based on the Global burden of disease(GBD)mortality data of Chinese residents with biliary tract cancer aged 20-84 from 1990 to 2019,the age-time-cohort(APC)model was used to analyze age effects of period and cohort on changes in biliary tract cancer mortality.Results The mortality of biliary tract cancer in China showed an upward trend from 1990 to 2019.In 2019,the mortality rate increased to 2.42/100,000,and the mortality for men and women increased to 2.45/100,000 and 2.39/100,000,respectively.Compared with 1990,an increase was 1.46%,men and women increased by 1.75% and 1.07%,respectively.The results of the APC model showed that the risk of death increased with age in both men and women from 1990 to 2019.The mortality first decreased,then increased and then decreased with the passage of time;men born later were at higher risk of death and women born later at lower risk of death.Conclusion The mortality of biliary tract cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 showed an upward trend.Elderly and men born later were at higher risk of death.The prevention and treatment of biliary tract cancer should pay more attention high-risk groups.

Key words: Biliary tract cancer, Mortality, Age-period-cohort model, Trend