1980—2018年上海市金山区结直肠癌死亡水平及其所致早死概率的趋势分析

doi:10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2020.03.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的掌握1980—2018年上海市金山区结直肠癌死亡水平及其所致早死概率的变化趋势,为制订结直肠癌防控策略和措施提供依据。方法通过死因登记信息系统采集1980—2018年金山区结直肠癌死亡病例,计算不同时期结直肠癌粗死亡率,标化死亡率、年龄组死亡率、早死概率及年度变化百分比等指标。结果 1980—2018年,金山区结直肠癌粗死亡率呈上升趋势(APC=2.14%,P＜0.001),标化死亡率呈下降趋势(APC=-1.21%,P＜0.001)。39年间,30~69岁组结直肠癌死亡率在男性无升降趋势(APC=-0.73%,P=0.070),女性呈下降趋势(APC=-1.80%,P＜0.001),但女性在2000—2009年和2010—2018年期间未呈现明显升降趋势(APC=-3.36%、2.19%,P=0.266、0.465)。39年间,男性结直肠癌早死概率呈下降趋势(APC=-1.71%,P＜0.001),但在2000—2009年和2010—2018年期间无明显升降趋势(APC=-2.90%、-2.36%,P=0.150、0.286);同期,女性结直肠癌早死亡概率呈下降趋势(APC=-1.96%,P＜0.001),同样在2000—2009年和2010—2018年期间无明显升降趋势(APC=-5.70%、0.19%,P=0.075、0.946)。结论结直肠癌是对金山居民健康威胁最严重的恶性肿瘤之一。2000年以来,男性和女性结直肠癌标化死亡率和早死概率未出现明显下降趋势。宜采取有针对性的健康干预措施和公共卫生政策来降低结直肠癌死亡率和早死概率。

关键词: 结直肠癌, 死亡率, 早死概率, 趋势

Abstract: Objective The aims of this study were to analyze the trend of colorectal cancer death level and the probability of premature death caused by colorectal cancer in Jinshan district,Shanghai from 1980 to 2018,and to provide a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies and measures of colorectal cancer.Methods The death cases of colorectal cancer were collected in Jinshan district from 1980 to 2018 through the cause registration information system.The colorectal cancer crude mortality in different periods,standardized mortality,age group mortality,early death probability and annual change percentage were calculated.Results From 1980 to 2018,the crude mortality of colorectal cancer in Jinshan district showed an upward trend(APC=2.41%,P＜0.001),and the standardized mortality showed a downward trend(APC=-1.21%,P＜0.001).During 39 years,the mortality of colorectal cancer in the 30~69 years old group did not increase or decrease in men(APC=-0.73%,P=0.070),and the decline in women(APC =-1.80%,P＜0.001).However,there was no obvious upward and downward trend in women colorectal cancer between 2000—2009 and 2010—2018(APC=-3.36%,2.19%,P=0.266,0.465).During 39 years,the probability of early death of male colorectal cancer showed a downward trend(APC=-1.71%,P＜0.001),but there was no obvious upward and downward trend between 2000—2009 and 2010—2018(APC=-2.90%,-2.36%,P=0.150,0.286).During the same period,the probability of early death in female colorectal cancer patients showed a downward trend(APC=-1.96%,P＜0.001),and there was no obvious upward and downward trend between 2000—2009 and 2010—2018(APC=-5.70%,0.19%,P=0.075,0.946).Conclusion Colorectal cancer is one of the most serious malignant tumors threatening the health of residents in Jinshan district.Since 2000,the standardized mortality and early death probability of colorectal cancer in men and women have not shown a significant downward trend.Targeted health interventions and public health policies should be adopted to reduce colorectal cancer mortality and premature death.

Key words: Colorectal cancer, Mortality, Early death probability, Trend

中图分类号:

朱晓云, 张亚宁, 马碧萍. 1980—2018年上海市金山区结直肠癌死亡水平及其所致早死概率的趋势分析[J]. 实用肿瘤学杂志, 2020, 34(3): 198-202.

ZHU Xiaoyun,ZHANG Yaning,MA Biping. Trend analysis of the death level and the probability of early death caused by colorectal cancer in Jinshan district,Shanghai,1980—2018[J]. Journal of Practical Oncology, 2020, 34(3): 198-202.

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链接本文: http://journal09.magtechjournal.com/Jwk3_syzlxzz/CN/10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2020.03.002

http://journal09.magtechjournal.com/Jwk3_syzlxzz/CN/Y2020/V34/I3/198

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