Journal of Practical Oncology ›› 2025, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 372-380.doi: 10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2025.05.002

• Cancer Surveillance • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of proportion and trend prediction of disability-adjusted life years attributed to aging population in common digestive system malignant tumors in China

LI Ji1, CHEN Yang2, ZHANG Maorong1, YANG Zhao1, TANG Xian2, WEN Hongmei2   

  1. 1. Department of Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Kunming 650034,China;
    2. Institute of Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention
  • Received:2025-01-10 Revised:2025-09-16 Online:2025-10-28 Published:2025-11-07

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Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the proportion of disability adjusted life years(DALYs)attributed to aging population in common digestive system malignancies in China,and predict the proportion and the trends of DALYs attributed to aging proportion from 2022 to 2046. Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021,the DALY data of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gallbladder and biliary tract cancer of Chinese people aged ≥25 years from 1990 to 2021 were selected.The age-period-birth models were used to predict the DALY of malignant tumors from 2022 to 2046.The changes of DALY from 1990 to 2046 were decomposed into population growth,population aging,and age-specific DALY rate changes,and analyze the proportion of DALY changes attributable to population aging and its change trend. Results From 1990 to 2021,the DALY change rates of esophageal cancer,stomach cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreatic cancer,liver cancer,gallbladder and biliary tract cancer in Chinese people aged ≥25 years were 18.20%,-0.34%,98.10%,164.16%,58.21% and 90.62%,respectively.Compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to population aging for six types of malignant tumors in 1990 was from -38.32% to -19.72%.The top three cancer types with the highest attribution ratios were stomach cancer(-38.32%),esophageal cancer(-38.07%),gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(-29.78%).The expected change rates of DALY for the six types of malignant tumors from 2021 to 2046 were 20.72%,11.50%,58.19%,57.38%,21.36% and 48.39%,respectively.By compared with 2021,the proportion of DALY changes of six malignant tumors attributed to population aging in 2046 was from 18.82% to 47.83%,and the top three cancers attributed to the proportion were gallbladder and biliary tract cancer(47.83%),colorectal cancer(43.07%)and pancreatic cancer(38.76%).From 2022 to 2046,the proportion of DALY changes attributed to aging population for the six types of malignant tumors would continue to rise(P＜0.001).The proportions of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer attributed to population aging and the proportion of age-specific DALY rate were both positive and rising(P＜0.001),which would eventually promote the further increase of DALY. Conclusion Population aging has become the main driving factor for the growth of DALY in digestive system malignant tumors in China.The impact on DALY of colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer will be prominent in the future.Targeted prevention and control strategies should be developed to actively respond to population aging.

Key words: cancer, digestive system, disability-adjusted life year, population aging, forecasting

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