Journal of Practical Oncology ›› 2021, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 495-499.doi: 10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2021.06.002

• Cancer Surveillance • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Trend and prediction of gastric cancer burden in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020

WU Liting1, LI Dabing2, DENG Xiaoxia2, LI Baisong1   

  1. 1. Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400042,China;
    2. Beibei Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing
  • Received:2021-04-13 Revised:2021-06-04 Online:2021-12-28 Published:2021-12-17

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Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to understand the trend of the disease burden caused by gastric cancer in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020,predict the mortality from 2021 to 2023,and provide the suggestion for prevention and treatment of gastric cancer. Methods The data on gastric cancer deaths in Beibei district,Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020 were collected from the “Population Death Information Registration Management System from China Disease Prevention and Control System”.The mortality,age-standard mortality,years of life lost due to early death(YLL),YLL rate,average years of life lost(AYLL)and years of life expectancy loss(YLEL)were calculated.A non-seasonal exponential smoothing model was used to predict mortality.The standardization rate was adopted the population structure of the 2010 national census.Chi-square test was used to compare the these rates.The annual percentage change(APC)and t test were used to analyze the changes of rates and trend. Results The mortality and age-standard mortality of gastric cancer in Beibei district decreased from 15.26/100,000 and 11.81/100,000 in 2013 to 10.66/100,000 and 6.75/100,000 in 2020.The APC were-6.29% and-8.79%,respectively,(t=-3.098,-4.690,P＜0.05).The mortality of gastric cancer increased with age,with the lowest in the age group under 50(0.74/100,000 to 2.13/100,000),and the highest in the age group over 80(76.21/100,000 to 169.81/100,000).The YLL rate,AYLL,and YLEL decreased from 3.63‰,23.77,and 0.25 in 2013 to 2.31‰,21.66,and 0.16 in 2020,respectively.The APC was-7.60%,-1.39%,and-7.32%(t=-3.211,-2.308,-4.930,P＜0.05).The simple non-seasonal model with exponential smoothing model was the optimal prediction model,and predicted to be 10.66/100,000 of gastric cancer mortality from 2021 to 2023. Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Beibei district is on a downward trend.The burden of disease caused by early death of gastric cancer has decreased compared with the past,but the burden of disease is still heavy.It is necessary to continue to consolidate the comprehensive prevention and control of gastric cancer.

Key words: Gastric cancer, Disease burden, Exponential smoothing, Prediction

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