Journal of Practical Oncology ›› 2025, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (5): 393-399.doi: 10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2025.05.005

• Cancer Surveillance • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction analysis of incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of esophageal cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021

LIU Lu1, ZHU Jiahe2, WANG Jia1, ZHANG Bolun1, XING Dehao1, DING Gaoheng3, WEI Xingmin1, LIU Yuqin3   

  1. 1. School of Public Health,Gansu University of Chinese Medicine,Lanzhou 730000,China;
    2. Faculty of Engineering,The University of Sydney;
    3. Cancer Epidemiology Research Center,Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital
  • Received:2025-09-25 Revised:2025-10-23 Online:2025-10-28 Published:2025-11-07

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Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence trend and age-specific characteristics of esophageal cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,and predict the incidence of esophageal cancer from 2022 to 2030. Methods Based on the incidence data of esophageal cancer in 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,the incidence was calculated by age,sex,urban and rural areas.The age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)was standardized using the 2000 Chinese standard population.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of esophageal cancer incidence,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)was calculated to quantify the overall rate of change.A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze incidence trend of different birth groups from 1930 to 2021,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict incidence. Results From 2010 to 2021,the ASIRC of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-14.47%,95% CI:-18.72%-9.99%,P＜0.001).The ASIRC in men decreased at an annual rate of 13.02%(AAPC=-13.02%,95% CI:-17.28%-8.54%,P＜0.001),the incidence of esophageal cancer in women at a rate of 15.80% per year(AAPC=-15.80%,95% CI:-20.69%-10.61%,P＜0.001).The ASIRC of esophageal cancer in urban areas decreased at an annual rate of 15.32%(AAPC=-15.32%,95% CI:-21.04%-9.18%,P＜0.001);ASIRC of esophageal cancer in rural areas decreased at a rate of 5.33% per year(AAPC=-5.33%,95% CI:-8.94%-1.58%,P＜0.001).From 2010 to 2021,the incidence of esophageal cancer in all age groups showed a significant downward trend(AAPC:-19.59% to -9.18%).The birth cohort analysis revealed that the incidence of esophageal cancer in people over 40 years old in the province,men,women,urban and rural areas showed a downward trend with increase of birth years.BAPC model predicted that that the ASIRC of esophageal cancer for the total province population,men and women would decrease from 6.47/100,000,10.02/100,000,and 2.95/100,000 in 2021 to 1.31/100,000,1.72/100,000,and 0.91/100,000 in 2030,respectively. Conclusions The incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2021,but men and rural areas were still the focus of high incidence.The prediction indicates that the incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province will further decline by 2030,suggesting that the prevention and control measures have achieved results;however,it is still necessary to strengthen the intervention and long-term monitoring of high-risk groups.

Key words: esophageal cancer, incidence trend, prediction, Gansu Province

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