2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测

doi:10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2021.06.002

实用肿瘤学杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (6): 495-499.doi: 10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2021.06.002

2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测

邬丽婷¹, 李大兵², 邓小霞², 李柏松¹

1.重庆市疾病预防控制中心(重庆 400042);
2.重庆市北碚区疾病预防控制中心

收稿日期:2021-04-13 修回日期:2021-06-04 出版日期:2021-12-28 发布日期:2021-12-17
通讯作者: 李大兵,E-mail:673659804@qq.com
作者简介:邬丽婷,女,(1988-),本科,主治医师,从事职业肿瘤监测与防护的研究。

Trend and prediction of gastric cancer burden in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020

WU Liting¹, LI Dabing², DENG Xiaoxia², LI Baisong¹

1. Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400042,China;
2. Beibei Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Chongqing

Received:2021-04-13 Revised:2021-06-04 Online:2021-12-28 Published:2021-12-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的了解2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌疾病负担变化趋势,预测2021—2023年胃癌死亡率,为开展胃癌防治工作提供建议。方法 2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌死亡资料来源于“中国疾病预防控制系统人口死亡信息登记管理系统”,计算死亡率、标化死亡率、早逝生命损失年(YLL)、早逝生命损失年(YLL)率、平均减寿年数(AYLL)和期望寿命损失年数(YLEL)等指标,采用指数平滑的非季节性模型预测死亡率。率的标化采用2010年全国普查人口结构。率的比较采用卡方检验。率的趋势分析采用年度变化百分比(APC),并对APC进行t检验。结果 2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌的死亡率和标化死亡率分别由2013年的15.26/10万和11.81/10万下降到2020年的10.66/10万和6.75/10万,APC分别为-6.29%和-8.79%,变化趋势有统计学意义(t值分别为-3.098和-4.690,P＜0.05)。胃癌死亡率随年龄的增加而上升,50岁以下年龄组最低(0.74/10万~2.13/10万),80岁以上年龄组最高(76.21/10万~169.81/10万)。YLL率、AYLL和YLEL分别由2013年的3.63‰、23.77年和0.25年下降到2020年的2.31‰、21.66年和0.16年,APC分别为-7.60%、-1.39%和-7.32%,变化趋势有统计学意义(t值分别为-3.211、-2.308和-4.930,P＜0.05)。指数平滑的简单非季节性模型为最优预测模型,预测2021—2023年胃癌死亡率均为10.66/10万。结论北碚区胃癌死亡率呈下降趋势,胃癌早死造成的疾病负担较过去有所下降,但疾病负担仍较重,宜继续巩固胃癌的综合防控。

关键词: 胃癌, 疾病负担, 指数平滑法, 预测

Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to understand the trend of the disease burden caused by gastric cancer in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020,predict the mortality from 2021 to 2023,and provide the suggestion for prevention and treatment of gastric cancer. Methods The data on gastric cancer deaths in Beibei district,Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020 were collected from the “Population Death Information Registration Management System from China Disease Prevention and Control System”.The mortality,age-standard mortality,years of life lost due to early death(YLL),YLL rate,average years of life lost(AYLL)and years of life expectancy loss(YLEL)were calculated.A non-seasonal exponential smoothing model was used to predict mortality.The standardization rate was adopted the population structure of the 2010 national census.Chi-square test was used to compare the these rates.The annual percentage change(APC)and t test were used to analyze the changes of rates and trend. Results The mortality and age-standard mortality of gastric cancer in Beibei district decreased from 15.26/100,000 and 11.81/100,000 in 2013 to 10.66/100,000 and 6.75/100,000 in 2020.The APC were-6.29% and-8.79%,respectively,(t=-3.098,-4.690,P＜0.05).The mortality of gastric cancer increased with age,with the lowest in the age group under 50(0.74/100,000 to 2.13/100,000),and the highest in the age group over 80(76.21/100,000 to 169.81/100,000).The YLL rate,AYLL,and YLEL decreased from 3.63‰,23.77,and 0.25 in 2013 to 2.31‰,21.66,and 0.16 in 2020,respectively.The APC was-7.60%,-1.39%,and-7.32%(t=-3.211,-2.308,-4.930,P＜0.05).The simple non-seasonal model with exponential smoothing model was the optimal prediction model,and predicted to be 10.66/100,000 of gastric cancer mortality from 2021 to 2023. Conclusion The mortality rate of gastric cancer in Beibei district is on a downward trend.The burden of disease caused by early death of gastric cancer has decreased compared with the past,but the burden of disease is still heavy.It is necessary to continue to consolidate the comprehensive prevention and control of gastric cancer.

Key words: Gastric cancer, Disease burden, Exponential smoothing, Prediction

中图分类号:

R735.2

邬丽婷, 李大兵, 邓小霞, 李柏松. 2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测[J]. 实用肿瘤学杂志, 2021, 35(6): 495-499.

WU Liting, LI Dabing, DENG Xiaoxia, LI Baisong. Trend and prediction of gastric cancer burden in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020[J]. Journal of Practical Oncology, 2021, 35(6): 495-499.

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2013—2020年重庆市北碚区胃癌疾病负担变化趋势及预测

Trend and prediction of gastric cancer burden in Beibei district of Chongqing city from 2013 to 2020

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