2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型预测分析

doi:10.11904/j.issn.1002-3070.2025.05.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势与年龄特征变化,并预测2022—2030年食管癌发病率。方法基于甘肃省15个肿瘤登记处2010—2021年食管癌发病数据,分年龄、性别及城乡计算发病率,中国人口年龄标准化发病率(中标发病率)采用2000年中国标准人口进行标准化。采用Joinpoint回归模型分析食管癌发病率的变化趋势,并计算平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC)以量化其总体变化速度。构建出生队列模型分析1930—2021年不同出生群体的发病变化趋势,并利用贝叶斯-年龄-时期-队列(Bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)模型预测发病率。结果 2010—2021年甘肃省食管癌中标发病率呈显著下降趋势(AAPC=-14.47%,95% CI:-18.72%~-9.99%,P＜0.001)。男性食管癌中标发病率以每年13.02%的速率降低(AAPC=-13.02%,95% CI:-17.28%~-8.54%,P＜0.001),女性食管癌中标发病率以每年15.80%的速率降低(AAPC=-15.80%,95% CI:-20.69%~-10.61%,P＜0.001)。城市地区食管癌中标发病率以每年15.32%的速率降低(AAPC=-15.32%,95% CI:-21.04%~-9.18%,P＜0.001),农村地区中标发病率以每年5.33的速率降低(AAPC=-5.33%,95% CI:-8.94%~-1.58%,P＜0.001)。2010—2021年各年龄组食管癌中标发病率均呈显著下降趋势(AAPC:-19.59%~-9.18%)。出生队列分析显示,全省、男性、女性、城市及农村地区均表现出40岁以上人群随出生年份的增加中标发病率呈下降趋势。BAPC模型预测全省、男性及女性的中标发病率将由2021年的6.47/10万、10.02/10万和2.95/10万分别降至2030年的1.31/10万、1.72/10万和0.91/10万。结论 2010—2021年甘肃省食管癌发病率呈下降趋势,但男性及农村地区仍为高发重点。预测显示至2030年甘肃省食管癌发病率将进一步下降,提示防控措施已取得成效,但仍需强化高危人群干预与长期监测。

关键词: 食管癌, 发病趋势, 预测, 甘肃省

Abstract: Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the incidence trend and age-specific characteristics of esophageal cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,and predict the incidence of esophageal cancer from 2022 to 2030. Methods Based on the incidence data of esophageal cancer in 15 cancer registries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021,the incidence was calculated by age,sex,urban and rural areas.The age-standardized incidence by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)was standardized using the 2000 Chinese standard population.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trend of esophageal cancer incidence,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)was calculated to quantify the overall rate of change.A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze incidence trend of different birth groups from 1930 to 2021,and the Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model was used to predict incidence. Results From 2010 to 2021,the ASIRC of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a significant downward trend(AAPC=-14.47%,95% CI:-18.72%-9.99%,P＜0.001).The ASIRC in men decreased at an annual rate of 13.02%(AAPC=-13.02%,95% CI:-17.28%-8.54%,P＜0.001),the incidence of esophageal cancer in women at a rate of 15.80% per year(AAPC=-15.80%,95% CI:-20.69%-10.61%,P＜0.001).The ASIRC of esophageal cancer in urban areas decreased at an annual rate of 15.32%(AAPC=-15.32%,95% CI:-21.04%-9.18%,P＜0.001);ASIRC of esophageal cancer in rural areas decreased at a rate of 5.33% per year(AAPC=-5.33%,95% CI:-8.94%-1.58%,P＜0.001).From 2010 to 2021,the incidence of esophageal cancer in all age groups showed a significant downward trend(AAPC:-19.59% to -9.18%).The birth cohort analysis revealed that the incidence of esophageal cancer in people over 40 years old in the province,men,women,urban and rural areas showed a downward trend with increase of birth years.BAPC model predicted that that the ASIRC of esophageal cancer for the total province population,men and women would decrease from 6.47/100,000,10.02/100,000,and 2.95/100,000 in 2021 to 1.31/100,000,1.72/100,000,and 0.91/100,000 in 2030,respectively. Conclusions The incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province showed a downward trend from 2010 to 2021,but men and rural areas were still the focus of high incidence.The prediction indicates that the incidence of esophageal cancer in Gansu Province will further decline by 2030,suggesting that the prevention and control measures have achieved results;however,it is still necessary to strengthen the intervention and long-term monitoring of high-risk groups.

Key words: esophageal cancer, incidence trend, prediction, Gansu Province

中图分类号:

R735.1

刘璐, 朱佳禾, 王佳, 张博伦, 邢德皓, 丁高恒, 魏兴民, 刘玉琴. 2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区食管癌发病趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型预测分析[J]. 实用肿瘤学杂志, 2025, 39(5): 393-399.

LIU Lu, ZHU Jiahe, WANG Jia, ZHANG Bolun, XING Dehao, DING Gaoheng, WEI Xingmin, LIU Yuqin. Prediction analysis of incidence trend and age-period-cohort model of esophageal cancer in cancer registration areas of Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021[J]. Journal of Practical Oncology, 2025, 39(5): 393-399.

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