关键词: 前列腺癌, 发病, 死亡, 趋势分析

Abstract: Objective This study aimed to analyze the trends in the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Changzhou City from 2011 to 2021,and to predict the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer over the next five years,providing a scientific basis for the formulation of public health policy. Methods The surveillance data of prostate cancer from 2011 to 2021 in the Changzhou Cancer Registry were used to calculate the incidence,mortality,and standardized rates of prostate cancer for each year.The Joinpoint Regression Program(version 5.1.0)was employed to analyze the trends in the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer,and the average annual percentage change(AAPC)was calculated.Linear regression models were used to analyze the correlation between the average age of incidence and the average age of death with the year.A birth cohort model was constructed to analyze the age-specific characteristics of the incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in different birth cohorts.Furthermore,an autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was constructed to predict the prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Changzhou City from 2022 to 2026. Results From 2011 to 2021,age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population(ASIRC)of prostate cancer in Changzhou City was 15.75 per 100,000,and age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASMRC)was 5.03 per 100,000.The ASIRC increased from 8.71 per 100,000 in 2011 to 21.68 per 100,000 in 2021,with an AAPC of 9.48%(95% CI:7.43%-11.57%).The ASMRC increased from 2.87 per 100,000 to 6.41 per 100,000,with an AAPC of 7.96%(95% CI:4.90%-11.12%).Age-specific analysis revealed that the incidence increased most rapidly in the 60-69 year age group,with an AAPC of 12.86%(95% CI:11.45%-14.68%);the mortality increased most rapidly in the population aged 80 and over,with an AAPC of 10.42%(95% CI:7.67%-15.48%).The actual average age of incidence showed a decreasing trend year by year from 2011 to 2021(P=0.013),whereas the actual and standardized average age of death showed an increasing trend year by year(P＜0.05).The ARIMA predictions indicated that the ASIRC and ASMRC of prostate cancer in Changzhou City would continue to rise in the next 5 years,with ASIRC increasing from 22.88 per 100,000 to 28.04 per 100,000,and ASMRC increasing from 6.34 per 100,000 to 6.35 per 100,000. Conclusions The incidence and mortality of prostate cancer in Changzhou City are on the rise,and projected to continue increasing in the next five years.It is necessary to further strengthen early screening and standardized diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer,with a focus on men aged 50 years and above,in order to effectively reduce the disease burden.

Key words: prostate cancer, incidence, mortality, trend analysis